BTC's Fourth Halving: What Do Institutions Predict for the Future Market?

Bitcoin welcomes its fourth halving in history, reducing block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Based on a price of $65,000, it is estimated that the halving will reduce selling pressure by $10 billion annually, thereby boosting the price of BTC.

However, multiple factors, such as continuous outflows from BTC spot ETFs and international situations, are influencing the price of BTC, adding uncertainty to its future trends.

This article reviews the viewpoints of various institutions and founders to understand how they view the subsequent market and what criteria they use for judgment.

Bullish Viewpoints

CZ: BTC to Hit Multiple Historical Highs in the Year Following the Halving

CZ stated that Bitcoin halving is different from stock splits. The fact that people are still asking this question shows that we are still in the early stages. He then shared a chart outlining his views on what could happen before and after the Bitcoin halving, which he had published in 2023, and mentioned being excited about the halving. Based on the experiences from the previous three halvings, CZ predicts:

• Diverse opinions in the months leading up to the halving;

• The price won't double overnight after the halving;

• BTC will hit multiple historical highs in the year following the halving.

Su Zhu: Extremely Bullish for April

Su Zhu, co-founder of Three Arrows Capital, stated, “I really don't understand the reasons for being bearish at this time. Structurally, April is extremely bullish. The Bitcoin halving is imminent, Ethereum ETF is about to be launched, and the public is waking up from a long slumber. We are still in the early stages.”

SkyBridge Capital CEO: Halving to be a Short-Term Catalyst for Rise

Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of SkyBridge Capital, believes that the recently approved 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs are “selling machines.” He thinks these products will continue to stimulate the demand for cryptocurrencies from retail and institutional investors. Scaramucci also believes that the upcoming Bitcoin halving will be the main catalyst for a short-term rise in Bitcoin's price and added that he is very fond of Solana (SOL).

Wintermute: Bullish on Bitcoin Ecosystem Assets

Wintermute's OTC trading department stated, “There is a vast pool of untapped capital in the Bitcoin ecosystem, which remains dormant. Surprisingly, traders can get very little exposure to these assets. If capital begins to flow into the Bitcoin ecosystem, tokens like RUNE, STX, and ORDI could benefit significantly and perform well.”

Bitget: Peak to Reach $150,000 by End of Year to Mid Next Year

Cryptocurrency trading platform Bitget believes that based on historical data, halving reduces Bitcoin supply, and when demand remains stable or increases, it pushes Bitcoin's price up. This year's market has the crucial factor of the Bitcoin spot ETF being approved, making the future bull market more certain. Whether traders, exchanges, project parties, or mining communities, all will pay special attention to the impact of this event on the market before and after the Bitcoin halving.

“In the short term (1 to 6 months), BTC may experience a monthly-level pullback, but $40,000 could become the low point of this bull market cycle. It is suggested to observe the support at $53,000 and $60,000, with a short-term upside target of $90,000. In the long term (over 6 months), as the Fed starts to cut interest rates and market liquidity is fully released, BTC may reach a peak of $150,000 by the end of this year to mid-next year.”

XT.COM: BTC Price Can Reach $100,000 After Halving

Cryptocurrency platform XT.COM's analysis suggests that, comparing several sets of data, Bitcoin's price usually starts to rise about a year before the halving and peaks about a year after the halving; the fourth halving occurred in April 2024, and the next peak will appear in April to May 2025. Using the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model—a model based on supply-demand relationships, using Bitcoin's stock and flow to calculate its value—the S2F model predicts that Bitcoin's price will see a significant rise after the 2024 halving and reach around $100,000 in 2025.

Nexo Co-founder: Based on Historical Halving Trends, BTC Price Could Double Within 8 Months

Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of cryptocurrency loan provider Nexo, said that based on previous halving situations, Bitcoin's price should double in no more than 8 months.

Stronghold Digital Mining: BTC Price to Surge Significantly in the Next Two Years

Greg Beard, CEO of Stronghold Digital Mining, stated that while people's enthusiasm for the Bitcoin halving may be somewhat exaggerated, the recent rebound in Bitcoin is “far from a temporary frenzy.” With institutional acceptance, Bitcoin is maturing. The BTC price will surge significantly in the next two years.

Neutral Viewpoints

CryptoQuant: Halving Has Minor Impact

A research report by CryptoQuant suggests that the supply shock from Bitcoin halving will not have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price as many investors expect.

The report states: “The impact of halving has been diminishing as the newly minted Bitcoins being sold by long-term holders are decreasing.” Instead, the “key driving force” affecting Bitcoin's price post-halving will be the increasing demand from investors holding a large amount of Bitcoin.

CryptoQuant indicates that the demand from whales holding between 1,000 to 10,000 BTC has surged to “an all-time high,” with a month-on-month increase of 11%.

While Bitcoin halving reduces the supply, there have been instances between 2021 and 2023 where the monthly demand from long-term holders exceeded the supply. However, the gap between the two is much larger now than ever before, suggesting that the impact of halving on Bitcoin's price trend might not be as significant as in the past. Long-term holders are now accumulating Bitcoins at a rate that is about seven times the new Bitcoins entering the market each month.

The report states: “The balance of long-term holders increases by as much as 200,000 Bitcoins per month, far exceeding the issuance of approximately 28,000 Bitcoins. Post-halving, the monthly issuance of Bitcoin will decrease to about 14,000.”

Furthermore, the total issuance of Bitcoin has dropped to just 4% of the total available supply, a significantly smaller proportion compared to before previous Bitcoin halvings. The report notes: “Prior to the first, second, and third halvings, the issuance accounted for 69%, 27%, and 10% of Bitcoin's available supply, respectively.”

Marathon CEO: Halving to Have Minor Impact on Price

Fred Thiel, CEO of the U.S.-listed mining company Marathon, stated: “I believe the approval and listing of Bitcoin spot ETFs have been a huge success, attracting funds and essentially accelerating the rally that was supposed to happen three to six months after the halving.”

He added that the halving will reduce Bitcoin's daily supply by about 450 coins, which could have a minor impact on the price. “As a Bitcoin mining company, we are very excited about the upcoming halving, and this time, the price did not drop but rose before the halving. So everyone is clearly maximizing this.”

QCP Capital: Price to Remain Between $64,000 and $73,000

Cryptocurrency market maker QCP Capital indicated in its latest market report that the downside skew emphasized in its risk reversal on ETH has proven to be an accurate early indicator of a downturn. This may be due to its sensitivity to market anxiety, as speculators betting on altcoins tend to use ETH put options for hedging.

On a macro level, news of Iran threatening retaliation against Israel triggered a sell-off in global risk assets, causing BTC to fall below $60,000, and altcoins to generally halve in value. This caught the market off guard, with perpetual contract funding rates falling to below -40%, the most negative since the beginning of the year. Negative funding rates also depressed the forward curve, with short-end yields falling below 10%. Following this drop, BTC returned to the center of the tight range between $64,000 and $73,000, and QCP expects it to be difficult to break out of this range in the short term.

Deutsche Bank: Halving Has Been Partially Priced In, Unlikely for Significant Rebound

Deutsche Bank (DB) stated in a research report that the upcoming halving of Bitcoin rewards has already been partially digested by the market, and a significant rebound in price is unlikely after the halving. The report analyzes that the expected high Bitcoin prices will continue due to the market's anticipation of the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF, future central bank interest rate cuts, and regulatory changes. Additionally, with the surge in Layer2 solutions and DeFi activities enhancing the network's utility, the outlook for the entire Bitcoin ecosystem and the broader cryptocurrency field has become exceptionally favorable.

Morph Co-founder: Halving Effect May Already Be Reflected in Price

Azeem Khan, co-founder of L2 project Morph, suggested that the halving effect may already be reflected in Bitcoin's price. He believes that institutional capital has been flowing into the market continuously for several months since the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF. Even before that, a significant amount of liquidity had entered the market, without the traditional signs of retail user (individual traders) buying. Azeem Khan said that institutions are not naive and may have bought in early.

Santiment: Market May Bottom Out Before or Shortly After BTC Halving

Blockchain analytics platform Santiment stated in a market insight article, “Historically, BTC price trends have been contrary to retail traders' expectations,” and added that the market may bottom out shortly before or after the halving.

Data tracked by Santiment shows that since the end of March, mentions of “bull market” or “bull cycle” on crypto social media have been declining. Meanwhile, mentions of “bear market” or “bear cycle” have been consistently increasing.

Bearish Viewpoints

Arthur Hayes: Caution in April, Bull Market to Start in May

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicts in a post that from April 15 to May 1, the annual U.S. tax season (April 15 is the tax filing deadline) will drain liquidity from the market. The market may experience extreme weakness and overselling in the short term. However, starting from May 1, with the Fed slowing down its balance sheet reduction and the U.S. Treasury deploying funds to stimulate the market, a new round of crypto bull market is expected to begin.

Hayes advises investors to act cautiously in April and to be bold in deployment after May. He revealed that he has already closed positions and made profits in tokens such as MEW, SOL, and NMT, and transferred funds to the USDe stablecoin on the Ethena platform for yield farming.

Hayes stated that he will not trade until May 1 and plans to have sufficient funds to establish various cryptocurrency positions by May, preparing for the real bull market.

10xResearch: $5 Billion Miner Sell-Off Expected After Halving

10xResearch suggests in a post that with Bitcoin miners preparing to sell most of their Bitcoin inventory, the cryptocurrency market may face significant challenges during a six-month summer lull. These inventories have been carefully built over the past few months and could disrupt market dynamics.

The typical scenario before the halving (April 20) is miners hoarding BTC, causing an imbalance in supply and demand, and then the Bitcoin price rises. Especially altcoins may be the first to be affected by this situation. Bitcoin often sees a 32% rise during the halving period. However, according to their calculations, miners might liquidate BTC worth $5 billion after the halving. This suspense of the sell-off could last for four to six months, explaining why Bitcoin might consolidate sideways in the coming months—just as it did after past halvings.

JPMorgan Analysts: Bitcoin Price May Not Rise After Halving

JPMorgan analysts state: “Limiting supply sounds like a bullish move, but it's not that simple; BTC is currently in an overbought phase.” Additionally, the analysts believe that the lack of venture capital in the crypto space will also lead to a decline in Bitcoin's value.

Conclusion

Based on the above summary, most institutions remain confident about the market after the halving and believe that the halving will initiate a new bull market, with the potential to surpass $100,000. However, there are also institutions and analysts who maintain a neutral or even pessimistic view on the market trend after the halving, believing that the halving expectations have been priced in and will not have a significant impact. Bears, based on the perspective of miner sell-off, anticipate short-term capital recycling pressure, suppressing the Bitcoin price.