Will the Law to Determine the Fate of Cryptocurrencies in the US Pass？ Is It Favorable for the Sector？

TD Cowen, one of the leading investment banks in the USA, recently shed light on the future of the Financial Innovation and Technology Act for the 21st Century (FIT21), a comprehensive crypto market structure bill. Although the bill has a slim chance of becoming law in the current Congress, it is seen as a critical cornerstone for future legislative efforts.

The Republican-led FIT21 bill will be voted on in the House of Representatives at the end of the month. The bill proposes a comprehensive approach to regulating the emerging crypto market and aims to impose greater regulatory responsibility on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC is described as a softer regulator for cryptocurrencies.

But TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, led by Jaret Seiberg, warns against getting caught up in the details of this legislation. “There is no chance of it becoming law in this Congress,” they wrote in a memo. The group cites the Senate Banking's lack of preparatory work and Democrats' focus on investor protections as the main reasons for this.

Despite these obstacles, TD Cowen sees FIT21 as a critical cornerstone for Congress when a new effort to enact crypto market structure legislation is expected in 2025/2026. The bill brings together members of the House of Representatives and shifts the focus to the Senate, allowing it to introduce its own bill.

The FIT21 vote could also shed light on how Democrats and Republicans view critical issues like anti-money laundering and investor protections. TD Cowen expects FIT21 to pass the full House.

FIT21, which passed the House Financial Services Committee and the House Agriculture Committee last summer, faces a tougher challenge than a bill regulating stablecoins. Announcing the vote on FIT21, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry called the bill a bipartisan effort “to finally provide clarity.”

Former President Donald Trump recently expressed his support for crypto. However, it is unclear whether he will maintain this pro-crypto stance if he wins the presidential election later this year.

TD Cowen notes that Trump could be a “problem” in the future. They believe Trump risks further polarizing crypto oversight, which could make it harder to find bipartisan consensus. “We will monitor this closely,” the investment bank concluded.

*This is not investment advice.