Industry Research: Review and Outlook of Market Development in 2024

Market Overview in the First Half of 2024

In the first half of 2024, the cryptocurrency market saw a significant increase in market capitalization. In the first quarter, the total market capitalization rose from approximately $1.5 trillion at the beginning of the year to $2.9 trillion by March. However, the market experienced some volatility in the second quarter, ultimately settling at $2.43 trillion. Bitcoin's market share reached 53.83% by the end of the second quarter, while Ethereum's market share also increased to 18%.

The Bitcoin halving and the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had a positive impact on the market. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs and the halving led BTC prices to hit an all-time high of $73,098. However, due to market volatility and macroeconomic factors, the price saw a decline in the second quarter.

In terms of macroeconomic factors, interest rate changes had a significant impact on the market. For example, the average interest rate in the first quarter of 2024 was 5.1%, while in the second quarter, the average interest rate rose to 5.5%, contributing to market fluctuations.

According to a report by CoinGecko, meme coins, real-world assets (RWA), and artificial intelligence (AI) were the most popular narratives in the second quarter of 2024, accounting for 35.7% of the market share. This trend was similar to that of the first quarter of 2024.

The MEME sector performed exceptionally well, attracting significant investor attention. For instance, the market capitalization of meme coins like PEPE and SHIB grew by over 50% in the first quarter.

Exchange Data

Centralized exchanges (CEX) experienced fluctuations in trading volume in the first half of 2024. In the first quarter, the total trading volume of the top ten CEXs reached $3.6 trillion, but this volume decreased by 12.2% in the second quarter, totaling $3.0 trillion. Binance continued to dominate the market, while Bybit rose to second place.

In the decentralized exchange (DEX) space, trading volume rebounded in the second quarter. DEXs on Solana, in particular, performed strongly, with trading volume increasing by 15.7%, making it the second-largest trading chain after Ethereum. Solana's overall trading volume also grew significantly, from $12.8 billion in the first quarter to $18.3 billion in the second quarter.

DEX market share began to increase slowly from Q1, starting to decline gradually in Q2.

Future Outlook

In the coming months, the crypto market will be focused on several important events:

• Macroeconomic Changes: Global economic fluctuations, adjustments in interest rate policies, and geopolitical factors will continue to have a profound impact on the crypto market.
• Institutionalization of Cryptocurrencies: The approval and listing of Ethereum spot ETFs, as well as the development of the RWA (Real-World Assets) sector, will attract more traditional institutional investors into the market.
• Revival of MEME Coins: As market sentiment warms up, MEME coins are likely to regain investor attention and enthusiasm. MEME coins continued to attract significant interest in the second quarter of 2024, occupying a notable share of the market.
• Remarkable Performance of Solana: Due to its significant on-chain activity and increasing ecosystem developments, Solana has become a blockchain worth watching. The trading volume of Solana DEX increased by 18% in the second quarter of 2024, making it the second-largest chain after Ethereum.

These events will continue to influence market liquidity and investor confidence, having a significant impact on future market trends.