What Impact Will the U.S. Presidential Election Have on the Crypto Industry?

As attention centers on the U.S. election, the influence of this election goes far beyond America‘s borders. Being the world’s largest economy, the elections results set the direction for U.S. policies over the next four years, which will impact global economies, international relations, climate policies, military dynamics, and technological advancements.

For the crypto industry, the election holds significant implications, particularly in areas such as regulatory uncertainty, market sentiment, investor confidence, tax policy changes, financial institutions stances, and the progression of blockchain and crypto technologies. As the election approaches, the crypto market is already positioning itself based on potential outcomes.

WikiBit has outlined the main election-related information and potential market trends.

Key Dates

The U.S. presidential election will take place on November 5, 2024. Voting stations open and close at different times across states due to time zone and state regulations, with most stations closing between 7:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. Currently, the election is in its voting phase.

According to Reuters, the election results may take days to tally, with the final result expected by noon on November 6. However, complete confirmation may take longer, depending on the closeness of the race and counting progress across states. For instance, due to high numbers of mail-in ballots, the 2020 election took four days post-election to finalize results.

Stances on Crypto Regulation

The main contenders in the 2024 U.S. presidential election are Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump. Harris, nominated by the Democratic Party in July 2024, is the first female and Asian American presidential candidate. Trump won the Republican nomination in the same month, seeking to regain the White House.

• Kamala Harris

Harris‘s economic policy emphasizes social equity and sustainable development, supporting stronger financial regulations focused on consumer protection and risk management. While cautious on crypto, Harris supports a clear regulatory framework that ensures consumer protection and curbs illegal activities, though her stance is less favorable to the crypto industry than Trump’s.

• Donald Trump

Trump favors reducing financial regulations, arguing that excessive regulation stifles economic vitality. His economic policy centers on “America First,” promoting economic growth and reviving manufacturing through tax cuts, tariffs, and currency policies. Trump has shifted from skepticism towards crypto in previous years to active support in the 2024 race, promising to make the U.S. the “global crypto capital,” accepting Bitcoin donations, and even releasing an NFT trading card collection.

Crypto Prediction Markets

Prediction market Polymarket currently shows Trump with a 58.7% chance of winning, leading Harriss 41.4%.

On prediction platform Kalshi, Trumps odds are at 56%, with Harris trailing at 44%.

Voting Progress

NBC NEWSs early voting panel shows that over 77 million people have already cast their votes early, with 41% identified as registered Democrats and 39% as registered Republicans.

Perspectives

Economically, a Trump victory could create a more relaxed financial environment, while a Harris victory would likely lead to tighter financial regulations. Trumps previous recognition of the crypto market has created positive expectations within the industry. However, policy implementation will take time.

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein have set a 2025 year-end target price for Bitcoin at $200,000, regardless of the election outcome. They cite U.S. fiscal imbalances, record debt levels, and monetary expansion as primary drivers for Bitcoin‘s demand as a hard asset, with the success of a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF further accelerating this trend. They conclude, “The magic of Bitcoin is now unleashed, and it’s hard to reverse this trend. Our $200,000 year-end price target for Bitcoin by 2025 stands, independent of the election outcome.”