Market Metrics and Experts Signal Delay in Altcoin Season Despite SEC ETF Talk

With the possibility that XRP, LTC, or SOL exchange-traded funds (ETFs) might be approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), many think the infamous “altcoin season” is just around the corner. At the same time, others insist the market shows no sign of an impending period of rising altcoin prices.

Altcoin Season Far Off, Data and MEXCs COO Remain Skeptical

On Thursday just before the weekend, the crypto economy sits at $3.23 trillion, up 2.38% over the last day. The day‘s top gainers include IP, MKR, and PYTH. However, while many alternative digital assets have posted gains recently, the infamous ’altcoin season is not as close as many think. Data indicates this, despite claims by some influencers that it is coming soon.

First off, blockchaincenter.net‘s Altcoin Season Index—a tool designed to assess the season’s arrival—registers a score of 39 out of 100. Scores exceeding 75 indicate that the notorious “altcoin season” is in effect. In essence, the criteria is fairly straightforward: if 75% of the top 50 crypto assets outperform BTC over the past season (90 days), altcoin season is officially declared.

Blockchaincenter.nets Altcoin Season Index on Feb. 20, 2025.

Tracy Jin, COO of MEXC, remains unconvinced that an altcoin season is on the horizon. In a market note shared with Bitcoin.com News, the MEXC executive detailed the reasoning behind her skepticism. “Currently, the crypto market shows no signs of an imminent altcoin season,” Jin said. “On the contrary, there is a redistribution of liquidity towards bitcoin, which is confirmed by its growing dominance.”

MEXCs COO added:

BTC‘s share of the total crypto market capitalization exceeds 60%, which is the maximum since 2021. At the same time, many previous year’s favourites, such as SOL and DOGE, have lost between 20% and 40% of their value over the past month, reflecting a general decline in interest in altcoins.

Jin explained that the market remains subdued, with the fear and greed index at 48, reflecting investor caution. Yet, history suggests altcoin interest may revive once bitcoin stabilizes, the MEXC executive added. Jin told Bitcoin.com News that early hints of altcoin season include BTC dominance dropping below 50%, rising trading volumes and prices for key altcoins like DOGE, SHIB, ETH, and SOL, and a gradual return of retail interest.

“The traditional market dynamics may have changed with the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024,” Jins market note disclosed. “This may have led to the fact that the model of cyclical liquidity transfer from BTC to altcoins no longer works as in previous cycles. The market may now wait for another four-year cycle before altcoins can rebound and show significant growth again.”

Many market observers dispute Jin‘s view, pointing to the SEC’s review of ETFs for coins like XRP, DOGE, SOL, and LTC as evidence of potential change. In addition, Nasdaqs proposed rule change to permit trading and listing of digital asset-based investment interests has many predicting that these trends will spark and fuel an altcoin season like no other.