Toncoin holders at loss hit 96%, but is a whale-led recovery on the way?

Tech

Toncoin holders at loss hit 96%, but is a whale-led recovery on the way？

Since hitting $5.6 nearly two months ago, Toncoin [TON] has experienced a strong downward momentum.

Over this period, the altcoin has dipped to hit March 2024 levels. In fact, as of this writing, Toncoin was trading at $2.9. This marked a 2.25% decline over the past 24 hours.

Equally, the altcoin has declined on weekly and monthly charts, dropping by 11.68% and 22.53%.

Source: IntoTheBlock

This decline in Tons price charts has left altcoin holders in a difficult position. As such, IntoTheBlock data showed that only 3% of holders were in profit.

At the same, time, 96% of holders were operating at a loss, while only 1% of holders are at the money.

Such a huge decline in the number of holders in profit risks further decline as they sell trying to avoid more losses. If the majority of holders decide to sell as they lose confidence in the market, it could lead to further decline.

However, despite the massive drop in profitability and the number of holders in profit, whales remain bullish.

Toncoin whales hold on

Often, when profit margins decline, holders tend to sell to cut their losses. However, Toncoin whales seem to have a different approach. In fact, Tons large holders are not selling and continue to hold onto their assets.

Source: Santiment

On the contrary, supply held by whales has continued to rise, hiking from 426.3k to 603.37k over the past day. The rise in whale supply implies that they continue to accumulate even more TON.

This market behavior suggests that whales have taken the dip as a buying opportunity.

When we look at the whale ratio, 91% of TON in circulation is in the hands of whales. This holding behavior is further confirmed by TONs Large Holders Netflow to Exchange Netflow Ratio.

Source: IntoTheBlock

From this data, we see that large holders are transferring less money to exchanges, which reflects accumulation.

Whale ratio to exchanges has dipped from 1023% to -759.48%, reflecting strong positive sentiments among large holders.

Equally, when we look at the Cohort, we can see that 92% of TON investors have held TON for more than one month and less than 12 months.

With large holders still holding on, the question is, can this bullishness boost the altcoins price movement？

What it means for TON

According to AMBCryptos analysis, although whales are not selling, it seems other groups are actively selling.

As such, there‘s still significant selling pressure in the market. We can see this as Toncoin’s RSI has declined to oversold since making a bearish crossover six days ago.

With RSI declining to hit 27, it seems sellers are more dominant in the market. The existing selling pressure is further validated by a negative CMF.

Source: TradingView

With the altcoin entering oversold, it presents two possible outcomes. Firstly, at this level, sellers tend to get exhausted, thus creating a buying opportunity.

If buyers take this dip as a buying opportunity, it could raise demand helping Ton to reclaim $3.2. However, if sellers continue selling, we could see another leg down before a potential trend reversal with Ton hitting $2.8.