Bitcoin Price Dips Below Major Averages—Crash or Recovery Ahead?

BTC/USD Daily Chart- TradingView

From the daily Heikin Ashi candlesticks, its evident that Bitcoin has been stuck in a sluggish drift since mid-March. The current price sits at around $81,868, with red candles gaining dominance, indicating selling pressure. The candles lack long upper wicks, a common trait during consolidations or bearish momentum buildups. The price is now trending below all key moving averages, a technical warning that the bulls are losing grip.

What Are the Moving Averages Saying？

The chart is overlaid with a Moving Average Ribbon featuring SMA 20, 50, 100, and 200. Heres the breakdown:

• SMA 20 ($84,356) and SMA 50 ($88,529): Both short-term MAs are above the current price, confirming short-term bearishness.
• SMA 100 (~$93,580): Mid-term resistance. Price has stayed far below it for weeks.
• SMA 200 (~$85,956): This long-term trendline is now acting as an overhead resistance, a bearish development. Ideally, in bullish markets, BTC trades above this.

When Bitcoin price trades below the 200-day SMA, it often signals macro-weakness. The compression of the moving averages above the price suggests a possible “death ribbon” effect, where convergence could lead to a continuation of downside unless bulls step in aggressively.

Are Accumulation Trends Showing Strength or Weakness？

Below the price chart, the Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) provides insight into volume flow. The ADL currently reads 1,588.39, and while its been recovering from January lows, the last few days show flattening and slight down-tilt. This suggests distribution is beginning to outweigh accumulation again—essentially meaning more traders are offloading BTC than buying.

ADL is a volume-based indicator that tracks the flow of money into or out of an asset. A rising ADL signals accumulation, while a falling or flat one signals distribution. BTCs current ADL action aligns with the price slipping under key SMAs.

Where Is the Nearest Support Zone for Bitcoin？

Bitcoins nearest support lies around the $80,000 psychological level, which has previously acted as a springboard in late January. A breakdown below this level could expose BTC to a deeper retracement toward $75,000 or even $72,000, depending on the velocity of the sell-off. Conversely, if BTC finds support here and volume picks up, it might test the 200 SMA again at ~$86,000.

This zone is absolutely crucial. Its not just a technical level but also a sentiment trigger. A bounce here could reignite bullish interest—while a break might spiral into FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt).

Can Bulls Reclaim Dominance in April？

For bulls to regain control, they need to push BTC price back above the 20-day and 50-day SMAs, turning them into support. That means a daily close above $88,500 would be an early sign of strength. But more than that, it will take volume confirmation and a visible uptick in the ADL to support any upward momentum.

If that happens, BTC price could re-attempt a rally back toward $93,000+, and reclaiming the 100 SMA could open doors for retesting all-time highs.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Crash or Comeback？

Given the current trend, short-term bias is tilted bearish, but the structure still holds above key psychological levels. If BTC price closes multiple daily candles below $80,000, we may see accelerated selling. However, if it holds and bounces with volume confirmation, we could witness an April surprise rally.

Short-Term Bearish Target: $78,000

Neutral Zone: $80,000–$86,000

Bullish Breakout Target: $93,000+

Bitcoin price is approaching a pivotal moment. With daily candles closing below major moving averages and volume trends cooling off, cautious sentiment is warranted. Yet crypto often thrives in uncertainty—and a sudden reversal is always on the table. For now, traders should monitor the $80K level like a hawk and prepare for volatility in either direction as April begins.