Analyzing TRUMP Token Weakness: Unlock Pressure and Market Doubts

The Official Trump (TRUMP) token shows a downward trajectory, dropping almost 8% over the past week to trade near $9.35 at press time. The token struggles to hold above critical support levels, facing resistance at the 20-day Exponential Moving Average ($10.82), as market participants eye an upcoming token unlock and broader questions circulate regarding motivations behind politically-linked crypto assets.

The bearish outlook intensifies due to the first round of TRUMP token unlockings scheduled for April 17th. Approximately 40 million TRUMP tokens (valued around $372 million and representing 20% of the circulating supply) are set to be released.

????News: The first major token unlock for $TRUMP, the memecoin launched by U.S. President Trump, is scheduled for April 17.

A total of 40 million tokens—worth $413 million and representing 20% of the circulating supply—will be released.

— SolanaFloor (@SolanaFloor) April 1, 2025

Technical Analysis: Below $10 Support

According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, if TRUMP lost the $10 support level, suggesting it could quickly drop towards $8. His chart analysis appears validated, as the price has slipped below the psychological $10 mark and hovers near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level ($9.52). Failure to reclaim $10 could open the door to further downside.

Martinezs shared chart (TRUMP/TetherUS perpetual contract) shows minor support near $9.50 after losing $10, with a more significant support level identified at $8.

Conversely, if $10 is reclaimed, resistance stands near $10.668 (recent high) and $11.10, per the chart.

TRUMP Price Analysis

The Fibonacci extension levels on the daily chart provide further potential price targets. If bearish momentum continues, the next major support lies near $8, aligning with Martinezs analysis.

Further downside could see TRUMP testing $7.67 (2.618 Fib extension), with more extreme targets at $5.82 and $4.67.

On the upside, immediate resistance is the $10 level, followed by $12.51 (0.236 Fib retracement). A breakout above $12.51 could signal a potential trend reversal.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35.13 signals the asset is nearing oversold territory but has not confirmed a reversal. The RSI lines gradient shows a slight increase in buyers, but trading volume remains moderate, suggesting a strong bullish push is needed to shift the current trend.

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