Gold or Bitcoin Starting in June？ JPMorgan Responds

According to JPMorgan analysts, Bitcoin has the potential to rise more than gold in the second half of 2025.

Analysts say the “depreciation trade,” where investors turn to both gold and Bitcoin to hedge against weakening fiat currencies, supported both assets in late 2024, but that trend reversed in 2025, evolving into a competitive process where one rises while the other lags.

According to the report shared by the analyst team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, managing director of JPMorgan, “While gold rose against Bitcoin from mid-February to mid-April, we have observed the opposite in the last three weeks, that is, Bitcoin gaining value against gold.” While analysts expect this mutual influence relationship to continue for the rest of the year, they are of the opinion that catalysts specific to cryptocurrencies will create a stronger upward potential in favor of Bitcoin.

The report states that Bitcoins recent strong performance is not only due to the weakness of gold, but also feeds on positive developments specific to the sector. It is stated that after MicroStrategy was rebranded as “Strategy”, the company aims to generate a total of $42 billion for Bitcoin purchases by 2027, and 60% of this target has already been achieved. Japanese company Metaplanet is also increasing its Bitcoin purchases in a similar manner.

Another important development is that some US states have started to consider Bitcoin as a reserve asset. New Hampshire can now invest up to 5% of state assets in Bitcoin and gold. Arizona is establishing a digital asset reserve funded by staking revenues and airdrops and has pledged no tax increases. According to JPMorgan, if other states take similar steps, it could have a lasting positive impact on Bitcoin.

Analysts, who also point out that the crypto derivatives market is maturing, state that US-based exchanges are increasing their influence in this area with major acquisitions. Coinbase's acquisition of Deribit, Kraken's acquisition of NinjaTrader, and Gemini's license to offer derivatives products in Europe are seen as developments that could increase institutional investors' interest in the sector.

*This is not investment advice.