XRP: 500 Million Threshold Lost, What About Price？

Officially, XRP has fallen below the 500 million payment volume threshold, a crucial on-chain metric that has long been used as a benchmark for activity and psychology throughout XRP Ledger. According to recent network data on May 17, XRP's transaction volume fell to 490 million, indicating a significant slowdown in network activity that might indicate waning momentum or just short-term consolidation.

Following a moderate correction, XRP is displaying some resilience as it trades at about $2.38 on the price chart. The 26-day Exponential Moving Average, which is currently serving as both a possible support zone and the next battleground for trend continuation, presents the asset with a significant technical challenge.

When assessing momentum, this short-term EMA is crucial; a bounce here might provide XRP bulls with sufficient traction to revisit prior highs close to $2.60. A descending wedge pattern was recently broken by XRP zooming out, which is usually regarded as a bullish move. Although there was a respectable amount of volume during that breakout, the follow-through has been lackluster, particularly as the volume has decreased and the price has remained unchanged.

Unless momentum swiftly recovers, this divergence raises concerns about a possible fakeout. Support currently sits between $2.30 and $2.15, which are the levels indicated by both EMA intersections and prior price congestion. A clear recovery from the 26 EMA at $2.31 might be helpful and open the door for further upward movement.

On the other hand, if this support is broken, XRP may return to $2.00 where the 100 EMA provides stronger support. Price hesitancy and a decline in network volume indicate that XRP is undergoing a transition. Price interaction with the 26 EMA and the return of on-chain volume above the 500 million mark will be key factors in determining whether this becomes a deeper retracement or a jumpstart for the next leg higher.

Regaining volume leadership and keeping support above $2.30 are the two technical-predictive factors that will determine XRP's short-term future. The bullish case rapidly deteriorates in the absence of those.