Bitcoin's Critical Test: Will BTC Hit $114,800 or Fall to $83,200？

Over the last two weeks, Bitcoin has rallied to a new high of $111,800, briefly exceeding the previous all-time high set in January 2025. However, this gain was followed by a retracement, implying a possible pause in bullish momentum.

With signs of older investors selling, the bulls now confront a crucial test of their resolve.

According to Glassnode, the STH cost basis now stands at $97,100, which represents the average entry price for recent buyers. The +1 standard deviation band, which is generally associated with overbought or bullish breakout conditions, is at $114,800, while the -1 standard deviation band at $83,200 indicates an elevated level of downside risk.

As profit-taking by long-term holders began to weigh on momentum, these three levels, $114,800, $97,100 and $83,200, now define the statistical boundaries of short-term sentiment. A break above or below these levels might likely shape the next leg of the market direction, indicating whether momentum is returning or fading.

Key levels to watch

BTC reached a new all-time high of nearly $112,000 on May 22. According to Glassnode, the rise appears to be spot-driven, with probable support in accumulation zones of $81,000 to $85,000, $93,000 to $96,000 and $102,000 to $104,000.

Based on the CBD heat map per Glassnode, many historical accumulation zones have flipped into distribution zones. Sellers in the $25,000 to $31,000, $38,000-$44,000 and $60,000-$73,000 ranges are now weighing on price action.

Cost basis quantiles and short-term holder bands indicate immediate support near $103,700 and $95,600, with resistance at $114,800. These levels are statistically significant markers of broader sentiment shifts.

Notably, top buyers from Q1, 2025, who held through the downturn below $80,000, are now again being tested as the market moves sideways. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up 1.05% in the last 24 hours to $104,925 following its drop to lows of $100,377 on Thursday.