BTC Options Point to Price Gains as Bullish Flow Builds Before CPI Data

Bitcoin

BTC Options Point to Price Gains as Bullish Flow Builds Before CPI Data

rose over the weekend, offering a reprieve after a week of market jitters. It is now trading around $106,600 after gaining 1.2% in the past 24 hours, while the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index added nearly 1.7%.

The recovery appeared driven less by headlines and more their absence, marking a shift from the public feud between U.S. President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk that rattled investors. As tensions cooled, markets recovered.

Even developments that might be seen as negative did not appear to sway markets. These include Taiwan-based crypto exchange BitoPro confirming being hacked, and data from Blockchain.com showing a slowdown in BTCs network activity to the lowest level in a year.

Meanwhile, the Hang Seng index jumped 1.6% as traders reacted to U.S. President Donald Trump expressing optimism for talks with China in London that start today, saying the meeting “should go very well.”

Still, concerns are mounting over deflation in China. Consumer prices fell 0.1% year-over-year in May and factory gate prices dropped 3.3%, the steepest decline since October 2022.

The Peoples Bank of China has already responded by trimming interest rates, reducing reserve requirements, and injecting liquidity into the market. That may eventually benefit cryptocurrencies, which often trade in tandem with liquidity conditions in traditional markets.

All that may recede in importance on Wednesday, when the U.S. announces the latest inflation figures. Mays consumer price index report is expected to show a rise in core inflation to 2.9%, up from 2.8% in April.

A stronger-than-expected reading could delay the Federal Reserves next rate cut and inject volatility across financial markets.

In a note published Monday, Spanish bank Bankinter warned that rising inflation and U.S. bond yields could pressure equity valuations and weaken the “fear of missing out” momentum thats been propping up global stocks and other risk assets.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury has already climbed to 4.5%, a level that could begin to weigh on market sentiment if inflation surprises to the upside. Crypto markets, for now, are caught in the crossfire. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
• June 9, 1-5 p.m.: U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force roundtable on “DeFi and the American Spirit”
• June 10, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Final Services Committee hearing for Markup of Various Measures, including the crypto market structure bill, i.e. the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act.
• June 11, 7 a.m.: Stratis (STRAX) activates mainnet hard fork at block 2,587,200 to enable the Masternode Staking protocol.
• June 16: 21Shares executes a 3-for-1 share split for ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB); ticker and NAV remain unchanged.
• June 16: Brazil‘s B3 exchange launches USD-settled ether (0.25 ETH) and solana (5 SOL) futures contracts, approved by Brazil’s securities regulator, the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) and benchmarked to Nasdaq indices.
• Macro
• Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%
• Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 2.8%
• Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.2%
• Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.3%
• Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.43%
• Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 5.53%
• Unemployment Rate Est. 4.6% vs. Prev. 4.5%
• Employment Change Prev. 112K
• Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.49%
• Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.93%
• Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.33%
• Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.93%
• June 9, 8 a.m.: Mexicos National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) releases May consumer price inflation data.
• June 10, 2 a.m.: The U.K.s Office for National Statistics releases April employment data.
• June 10, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases May consumer price inflation data.
• June 11, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases May consumer price inflation data.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
• Unlocks
• June 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $53.61 million.
• June 13: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.33% of its circulating supply worth $12.82 million.
• June 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $16.90 million.
• June 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.04% of its circulating supply worth $10.59 million.
• June 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.91% of its circulating supply worth $32.21 million.
• June 17: ZKsync (ZK) to unlock 20.91% of its circulating supply worth $41.25 million.
• June 17: ApeCoin (APE) to unlock 1.95% of its circulating supply worth $10.88 million.
• Token Launches
• June 9: Skate (SKATE) to be listed on Binance, Bybit, MEXC,KuCoin, Bitget and others.
• June 16: Advised deadline to unstake stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygons sunsetting process ends
• June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN) and Synapse (SYN).

ConferencesToken Talk

By Francisco Rodrigues

• Skate, a blockchain infrastructure layer focused on unifying liquidity across decentralized networks, is introducing its SKATE token today.
• The Token Generation Event (TGE) marks the public debut of the token, with listings on Binance Alpha, Bybit and MEXC.
• Formerly known as Range Protocol, Skate is building a framework that allows decentralized applications (dapps) to run across multiple virtual machines like Ethereum, Solana and TON without needing separate deployments.
• The token lies at the heart of the system, supporting governance, staking and liquidity provision through the networks automated market maker (AMM).
• Out of a fixed 1 billion token supply, 10% is being distributed via airdrops to early users, ecosystem contributors and NFT campaign participants. Claiming and staking the tokens immediately may boost rewards by 30%.
• MEXCs pre-market trading started on June 4, with prices initially jumping 33% to $0.20 before dropping back down to $0.12 at the time of writing.

Derivatives Positioning

• BTC options open interest on Deribit is $32.9B, with calls significantly outweighing puts at 200,000 contracts versus 110,000.
• The put/call volume ratio stands at 0.54, indicating continued demand for upside exposure. The $140K strike leads all others with 16,100 calls open, representing $1.79B in notional value.
• The 27 June expiry is the main focal point, accounting for $13.1B in notional open interest or 41% of the total. Daily notional flow is highest at this expiry with $206M traded, followed by $194M at the 13 June expiry.
• Monday flow data from Deribit shows 31% of contracts were calls bought and 17% were puts bought. The rest of the activity came from call and put selling, suggesting traders are combining bullish positioning with yield strategies at higher strikes.
• Coinglass liquidation heatmaps show high concentrations of long leverage near $104K and $107K. A total of $39M in liquidation leverage is stacked around $104.7K, making it a key downside level to watch for potential forced selling.
• Funding rates from Velo are steady, with BTC annualized funding holding near 6.2%. This reflects a moderately bullish stance, with no signs of excessive leverage in perpetual markets.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 2% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $106,743.74 (24hrs: +1.19%)
• ETH is up 0.5% at $2,514.74 (24hrs: +0.29%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 2.18% at 3,088.96 (24hrs: +1.36%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 18 bps at 2.94%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.006% (6.5667% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.31% at 98.89
• Gold futures are down 0.16% at $3,341.10
• Silver futures are up 0.87% at $36.46
• Nikkei 225 closed up 0.92% at 38,088.57
• Hang Seng closed up 1.63% at 24,181.43
• FTSE is down 0.11% at 8,827.95
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.16% at 5,418.96
• DJIA closed on Friday up 1.05% at 42,762.87
• S&P 500 closed up 1.03% at 6,000.36
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.20% at 19,529.95
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.33% at 26,429.13
• S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.36% at 2,584.58
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.49%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,011.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 21,784.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 42,840.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 64.7 (+0.19%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02355 (-0.80%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 872 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $52.77
• Total Fees: 3.17 BTC / $335,041
• CME Futures Open Interest: 148,080
• BTC priced in gold: 31.8 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 9.01%

Technical Analysis

• Bitcoin has reclaimed the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on the daily timeframe after retesting the 50-day EMA for the first time since its breakout from $85,000. Price action has broken out of the downward trendline, signaling a potential shift in momentum.
• However, it remains within a key daily order block, which may act as resistance.
• For a bullish continuation, it‘s crucial for the BTC price to hold above these reclaimed EMAs and secure a weekly close above $109,400, which would invalidate the current weekly swing failure pattern and confirm the cryptocurrency’s strength.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $374.47 (+1.54%), +1.87% at $381.49 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $251.27 (+2.9%), +1.52% at $255.10
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $107.7 (+29.4%), +10.21% at $118.50
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.4 (+4.9%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.78 (+6.05%), +2.47% at $16.17
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $9.85 (+9.57%), +2.94% at $10.14
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $12.19 (+2.18%), +0.9% at $12.30
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.79 (+8.54%), +2.66% at 10.05
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $19.57 (+7.53%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $32.98 (+1.04%), +1.49% at $33.47
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $28.86 (+10.45%), unchanged in pre-market