PUMP Risk Defined, But Is the Real Upside Yet to Come?

Tech

PUMP Risk Defined, But Is the Real Upside Yet to Come？

• PUMP token ICO has been criticized as the last exit strategy by the developers.
• The Pump.fun platform faces an intense competition from BONK meme-backed LetsBONK.fun.
• PUMP price may drop further in the coming weeks, amid macro bullish outlook, before rebounding later.

After a much-hyped Initial Coin Offering (ICO) last weekend, the Pump.fun (PUMP) token is facing its first major test, with its price dropping over 15% in the last 24 hours to trade about $0.004355 on Saturday, July 19. But while the price chart is flashing warning signs, a massive surge of activity in the futures market suggests many traders are betting big on a recovery.

As a result, PUMP price has slipped below the listing price of $0.00543, according to market aggregate data from CoinGecko. However, PUMP price has yet to drop below the ICO price of $0.004, which is a major support level bolstered by the majority of the buyers.

Why the futures market tells a different story for PUMP

According to market data analysis from Coinglass, PUMP token has accumulated bullish aspects. For instance, the PUMP futures Open Interest (OI) has increased gradually from $104 million on July 11 to about $674 million on July 19. The gradual increase in its OI signals a rise in demand from speculative traders.

The PUMP token also has recorded more positive funding rates in the past week, which is associated with bullish sentiment.

Pump.fun Fundamentals At a Glance

The Pump.fun project raised more than $500 million, which is crucial to support its operations in future including token buybacks. In a bid to keep the ecosystem vibrant, the Pump.fun team announced the launch of its creator fees for community takeovers.

The creator fees program is meant to reward the token holder who puts in more work in providing value to a memecoin project. Furthermore, Pump.fun has facilitated the launch of millions of tokens but a few dozens have taken off.

The first beneficiary of the creator fees program was X user Ricco for building the Chill House page, which is dedicated to the Chillhouse meme.

Meanwhile, the Pump.fun platform has faced intense competition from Bonk (BONK)-backed LetsBONK.fun meme launchpad. According to aggregate data from Jup, LetsBONK.fun recorded a 24-hour trading volume of about $759 million, thus a market share of 55% on the Solana network. On the other hand, Pump.fun posted a 24-hour volume of $519 million, thus a market share of 37%.

Midterm Expectations

The PUMP price has slipped below a crucial support level following its 15% drop in the past 24 hours. The altcoin formed a double-top, coupled with bearish divergence of the four-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI).

With the PUMP price having respected a falling logarithmic trend, the midterm bearish sentiment is likely to persist. The bearish sentiment will be invalidated if PUMO price consistently closes above $0.0067.