Bitcoin’s 80% Stock Market Correlation Could Trigger a Major Price Move

Bitcoin

Bitcoins 80% Stock Market Correlation Could Trigger a Major Price Move

Bitcoins connection to the traditional stock market has reached new highs, with its correlation to the S&P 500 now standing at 80%, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.

This heightened link suggests that macroeconomic drivers such as interest rate expectations, liquidity conditions, and broader risk sentiment are now playing an even more direct role in shaping Bitcoins short-term performance.

Under these conditions, equity market rebounds are likely to provide a lift to BTC, while downturns could amplify selling pressure in the crypto market.

Adler notes that the current figure is based on a 1-week rolling correlation—a measure prone to volatility—and warns that such extreme readings rarely persist for more than a few weeks.

Technical data shows Bitcoin trading around $116,568 at press time, with recent price action reflecting tight consolidation after a recovery from lows near $112,000 earlier in the week. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 45.54, signaling a neutral momentum state, while the MACD remains slightly in negative territory, hinting at a cautious market stance.

Bullish Scenario

If equity markets extend their recovery and risk appetite returns, Bitcoin could push toward the $118,500–$120,000 zone in the short term. A breakout above this range could trigger momentum buying, with potential to retest the $123,000 level seen in July. Strength in the S&P 500 and supportive macroeconomic data would likely fuel such a rally, especially given the strong correlation.

Bearish Scenario

If stock markets falter or macro data sparks fears of a slowdown, Bitcoins high correlation could work against it. A drop below $114,000 may trigger more aggressive selling, with the next key support sitting between $111,500 and $110,000. Weakness in equities, coupled with risk-off sentiment, could see BTC revisiting these lower levels sooner than expected.

While short-term volatility persists, the strong alignment between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 underscores the growing influence of macroeconomic forces on digital assets. For traders, this means monitoring equity market trends could be just as critical as watching crypto-specific news in the weeks ahead.