Bitcoin institutional volume hits 75% on Coinbase in new BTC price signal

BTC price gains may be around the corner as institutional Bitcoin demand puts in a classic bullish move.

Key points:

• Coinbases institutional Bitcoin trading volume hits 75%, something that has always seen the BTC price rise a week later.
• Institutions are buying a lot more Bitcoin than is being mined daily.
• Risk assets are finding reasons to be bullish again as the US economic policy outlook improves.

Bitcoin (BTC) is due for fresh gains within a week as institutions step up BTC buying, new analysis predicts.

In an X post on Wednesday, Charles Edwards, founder of crypto quantitative digital asset fund Capriole Investments, pointed to booming outflows from US exchange Coinbase.

Analysis: Institutions should spark fresh BTC price gains

Bitcoin is once more a target for institutional buyers as US inflation cools and markets see lower interest rates next month.

Capriole data showed that on Tuesday, 75% of Coinbases volume came from institutional players.

“All readings above 75% have seen higher prices one week later,” he noted.

BTC/USD chart with Coinbase institutional volume share. Source: Charles Edwards/X

Capriole calculates institutional “excess demand” this week as 600% of the number of the roughly 450 BTC mined daily.

BTC/USD chart with institutional demand vs new BTC supply. Source: Capriole Investments

Bitcoin corporate treasuries alone added 810 BTC to their holdings Tuesday, with Mondays tally even larger at nearly 3,000 BTC.

BTC/USD one-day chart with treasury buys and sells. Source: Capriole InvestmentsBitcoin benefits from Fed rate-cut optimism

The moves accompanied lower-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July and a BTC price push toward all-time highs.

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Asked why institutions “went crazy” as a result, Edwards drew specific attention to the outlook for interest rates.

“Because yesterday inflation was as expected, which means its a certainty the Fed will cut rates next month, and probably 3 times this year,” he wrote.

“Market is now assessing possibility of a large 0.5% cut even, given the poor job backdrop. Rates down = risk assets up, and Bitcoin is the fastest horse historically.”

Fed target rate probabilities for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

The latest data from CME Groups FedWatch Tool shows markets overwhelmingly anticipate a 0.25% cut in September.

“Market-implied cuts for 2025 were unchanged following the release, with pricing still reflecting around 60bps of rate cuts,” trading firm QCP Capital observed about CPI reactions in the latest edition of its regular Asia Color market updates.

“The terminal rate has also held steady, despite a softer labour market and expectations for a more dovish Fed Chair in 2026. Futures positioning suggests investors see 3% as the Feds floor in 2026.”

QCP looked forward to next weeks Jackson Hole symposium for further cues as to the Feds next move.