Microstrategy Checks Every Box, So Why It Missed S&P 500 Inclusion?

XIs S&P 500 Ready for MicroStrategy (MSTR stock) and Bitcoin？

Crucially, meeting the quantitative criteria does not guarantee inclusion. The S&P 500 Index Committee has broad discretion and considers the overall sector and industry composition of the index.

As Charles Schwab explained, the Committee “doesnt base [its decisions] simply on the top-500 market capitalizations.” Rather it is based on representing the full market sectors in balance.

For example, the S&P may choose among eligible candidates to maintain a desired weight in technology, consumer, energy, or other sectors, or to reflect recent removals.

The Committee does not publish detailed reasons for its picks. So investors cannot assume that any candidate will definitely be added just because it qualifies on paper.

This discretionary element has led to unpredictable outcomes. In recent quarters, several companies that easily met the technical hurdles were nonetheless passed over.

For instance, in June 2025 AppLovin (APP) and Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP) met all S&P 500 metrics but were “overlooked anyway.” After the no-change announcement, their stocks fell sharply on disappointment.

Likewise, Robinhood Markets was widely viewed as a likely new addition in mid-2025 given its U.S. listing and robust market cap.

But the June rebalancing saw no additions or removals, and Robinhoods shares dropped about 5% on the news.

These cases underscore that “speculating each quarter on who‘s in and who’s out can be dangerous”; eligibility is necessary but not sufficient.

If MicroStrategy Had Made It

If MicroStrategy had been added, it would wouldve trigger substantial passive buying and could materially boost the stock price, at least initially.

When a company joins the S&P 500, index funds and ETFs that track the index must buy its shares, creating a surge in demand.

Schwab notes that “most mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that seek to emulate the index buy shares of the new addition”, yielding “a quick burst of money” for the stock.

Empirical cases bear this out: Teslas announcement/inclusion in December 2020 saw TSLA stock jump roughly 60% from the day before the announcement to actual inclusion.

In fact, much of Teslas gains occurred in anticipation of the move.