Bitcoin (BTC) flash crash

Bitcoin (BTC) price plunged below $104,000 today, worrying investors. Following this sharp decline, the most debated topic in the market was whether BTC would fall below $100,000 before the end of October.

Chart showing the intraday decline in BTC price.

According to data from prediction platform Polymarket, the majority of investors think Bitcoin will fall below $100,000 this month. According to the data:

• While the probability of “BTC falling below $100,000 this month” option is priced at 48.9%,
• For the “Will not fall” option, the rate is at 52.9%.

This suggests the market is almost split in two. There are also notable predictions for lower price scenarios:

• The probability of below $95,000 is 24.6%,
• The probability of falling below $90,000 is traded at 9.8%.

Optimism regarding upward expectations is quite low:

• The probability of BTC breaking above $130,000 this month is only 6%,
• The probability of it rising above $135,000 is priced at around 2%.

According to Polymarket data, 45% of investors predict that Ethereum could fall to around $3,400 in October:

• The probability of under $3,000 is 15%,
• The probability of falling below $2,800 is around 9%.

In upside scenarios, the probability of breaking above $5,000 is priced at only 9%.

*This is not investment advice.