Experienced Analyst Says Recent Drop Was a “Bear Trap,” Claims 2020-Like Rally Could Happen

“Wall Street is calling it capitulation, Reddit is crying bear market. But this time, there‘s a bear trap everyone’s missing,” Perera said.

According to the analysts analysis, based on Glassnode data, addresses holding between 1,000 and 1,000 BTC have been in a net accumulation phase since early October. This group of investors continues to buy, even as the price of Bitcoin has fallen from $118,000 to $108,000.

Pointing out that Bitcoins MVRV Z-Score is at 2.15, Perera stated that this historically points to periods of accumulation:

“When the Z-score drops below 2, that‘s the pain zone. That’s when smart money accumulates.”

Perera noted that institutional demand generated by ETFs significantly exceeds Bitcoin supply.

Perera argues that when looking at Bitcoin cycles, the current market bears similarities to the period before the major rally in 2020. At that time, the market was considered “dead” when Bitcoin was around $12,000, followed by a 170% surge.

Analyst Axel Adler identifies the $106,000-$107,000 range as the critical support zone, while 21Shares analyst Matt Mena predicts that Bitcoin could rise to $150,000 by the end of the year.

Perera also noted that the US government shutdown at the end of 2018 marked Bitcoins bottom. At that time, Bitcoin fell from $6,000 to $3,000, before a strong recovery began.

In this context, Perera stated that the current government shutdown could have a similar effect, and analyst Joe Consorti quoted Bitcoin as moving with a lag of approximately 100 days compared to gold, and according to JPMorgans model, the year-end fair value is around $165,000.

Perera concluded his analysis with the following statement:

“Every major Bitcoin bottom looks the same: despair, capitulation, and quiet buying by the smart money. $3,000 in 2018, $12,000 in 2020, now $105,000 in 2025.”

According to Perera, the current level could be the final accumulation phase before the final rally. The analyst predicts that if the 100,000 support level holds, Bitcoin could reach the $150,000-$165,000 range by the end of the year.