Coinbase stock surges after JPMorgan upgrade on Base, USDC potential

JPMorgan sees Coinbase unlocking billions through its Base layer-2 network and USDC rewards overhaul, lifting its price target and fueling a sharp stock rally.

Shares of Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) rallied sharply on Friday after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the cryptocurrency exchange, highlighting new monetization opportunities tied to its Base network and USDC payout strategy.

The banks analysts lifted their rating to “Overweight” from “Neutral” and raised their price target to $404 per share, implying roughly 15% upside from current levels.

JPMorgan said Coinbase is “leaning into” its Base layer-2 blockchain and exploring ways to better capture value from the platforms growth.

The bank estimated that the launch of a Base token could represent a $12 billion to $34 billion market opportunity, with Coinbase‘s retained share potentially worth $4 billion to $12 billion. Analysts noted that the token’s distribution would likely prioritize developers, validators and the Base community.

The report also pointed to margin expansion potential from changes to Coinbases USDC (USDC) rewards program. JPMorgan said Coinbase may reduce interest rewards for most users while offering them primarily to Coinbase One subscribers — a move that could add about $374 million in annual earnings at current USDC yields and interest rates.

Following the upgrade, COIN shares surged more than 9% on Friday to about $353. The stock is now up about 42% year-to-date, lifting Coinbases market capitalization to roughly $90.6 billion.

Coinbase (COIN) stock. Source: Yahoo Finance

Coinbase earnings in the spotlight

Coinbase is set to report third-quarter results on Oct. 30. According to Zacks Investment Research, analysts expect the company to post earnings of $1.06 per share, up 71% year over year, on revenue of $1.74 billion, a 44.1% increase from the same quarter last year.

The upcoming report follows a mixed second quarter, when Coinbase missed earnings expectations but achieved several operational milestones, including rising stablecoin balances and higher stablecoin-related revenue.

The company has been placing growing emphasis on its subscription and services segment, which is projected to contribute $665 million to $745 million in the third quarter.

Among the quarters key developments, Coinbase highlighted the approval of the GENIUS Act, which established a clear regulatory framework for US stablecoin adoption, along with House passage of a broader market structure bill seen as a step toward clearer crypto regulation.