Circle Stock Sinks Back to IPO Price Amid Rising Insider Unlocks and Volatility Fears

Circles (CRCL) stock has erased nearly all of its post-IPO gains, retracing back to its opening price despite strong third-quarter earnings and accelerating USDC growth.

The sharp reversal reflects rising supply pressure, expiring lockups, and a shifting stablecoin market, all while major institutions turn increasingly bullish on Circles long-term moat.

Circle Round-Trips Its Entire Post-IPO Rally

Stablecoins remain one of the most promising use cases of crypto, dominated by Tether and Circle. However, the latter, Circle, is the only major issuer that allows public investors to invest, with its IPO in early June attracting an explosive volume of interest or subscription.

*CIRCLE IPO IS SAID TO BE OVER 25 TIMES OVERSUBSCRIBED

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) June 4, 2025

Nonetheless, despite initial interest, it has wiped out all the gains. MoonRock Capital founder Simon Dedic noted that CRCL has basically round-tripped its entire run and is now back at its IPO opening price.

Cirlce (CRCL) Price Performance. Source: TradingView

The crypto executive also stated that recent price-driven FUD has been amplified by macro uncertainty and the upcoming rate-cut cycle.

He also noted that today marks an unlock for early investors, meaning a significant portion of the supply could enter the market as Circle IPO investors capitulate. In his opinion, this could add short-term volatility but also create attractive entry points.

This round trip brings to mind the fact that Coinbase IPO investors recorded their first profits on July 21, 2025, nearly four years after the company went public.

Strong Q3 Results Contrast with Circle Stock Decline

While the stock retraced, Circle‘s fundamentals strengthened. App Economy Insights highlighted Circle’s Q3 numbers:

• USDC circulation up 108% YoY to $74 billion
• Revenue up 66% YoY to $740 million (a $40 million beat)
• Adjusted EBITDA up 78% YoY to $166 million
• USDC circulation still expected to grow at a 40% CAGR

Circle itself reported $9.6 trillion in on-chain volume (+680% year-over-year) and $73.7 billion in USDC circulation. This reflects the rapid global scaling of stablecoin settlement.

Our Q3 2025 earnings results prove that the internet financial system isn‘t coming, it’s already here.

✔️ $73.7B USDC in circulation (as of end of period), +108% YoY

✔️ $9.6T in onchain transaction volume, +680% YoY

Full results at https://t.co/TltU6DsKUy pic.twitter.com/pWYyY8GraB

— Circle (@circle) November 12, 2025

Against this backdrop, MoonRock Capitals Dedic dismissed fears of earnings compression, saying that concerns leaning in this direction are misplaced.

“Seeing quite a bit of FUD from Circle investors lately, mostly driven by price action. Some are also concerned about the upcoming rate cut cycle, which could continue to pressure Circle‘s earnings. That’s a mid-curved take, though imo,” he noted.

Insider Unlocks Add Sell Pressure After Early Surge

Elsewhere, Milk Road says part of Circle‘s decline is structural. The stock IPO’d at $31, surged to near $240, and then pulled back once initial lockup restrictions expired, allowing insiders to sell at elevated valuations.

Based on this, Milk Road argues that CRCL still “looks overvalued” and that the earnings beat functioned as another “sell-the-news” catalyst.

Despite positive news, $CRCL ended up falling over 12% yesterday.

Here's why:

Circle IPOd at $31 and quickly peaked near $240. That's massive growth right out of the gate.

But that surge was likely unsustainable.

Early on, insiders were probably locked up and unable to sell,… https://t.co/Bebxi1WxGo pic.twitter.com/R9UxgXGKOj

— Milk Road (@MilkRoad) November 13, 2025

User commentary on X (formerly Twitter) also highlighted valuation tensions in the stablecoin sector. One wrote that Tether is valued at $500 billion, while Circle is valued at $20 billion, asking whether “Circle is too cheap or Tether too expensive.”

Others pointed to a massive profitability gap, with Tether producing dozens of times more net income in 2025.

“Reasonable, the net profit gap between Tether and Circle is dozens of times,” one user quipped.

JPMorgan Flips Bullish, Citing Stablecoin Supercycle

Despite heavy price action, institutional interest is strengthening. JPMorgan upgraded CRCL from “underweight” to “overweight,” raising its price target from $94 to $100. Analysts said Circles Q3 beat and improving fundamentals justify a more bullish stance.

JPMORGAN RAISES PRICE TARGET ON $CRCL TO $100, ASSIGNS “OVERWEIGHT” RATING

— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) November 13, 2025

They highlighted:

• A pipeline of large partnerships tied to Circles Arc network, now in testnet
• Interest from firms like Deutsche Börse, Finastra, and Visa
• Potential monetization via a future Arc token
• USDC held on Circles platform, surging from $1.1 billion to $9.1 billion YoY
• Newly tradable 160 million shares, increasing float and short-term sell pressure

Even Cathie Woods Ark Invest has reportedly bought $30 million of CRCL shares.

Cathie Wood and Ark Invest bought 353,328 shares of Circle $CRCL today pic.twitter.com/AZyglHrfJU

— Evan (@StockMKTNewz) November 13, 2025

Circle sits at the center of cryptos most established real-world use case, yet faces immediate volatility as insiders unlock their holdings and investors reassess valuation versus competitors.

With institutional adoption accelerating and a major bank raising its target to $100, the next move for CRCL hinges on whether fresh supply is absorbed or triggers one more shakeout before the next leg of the stablecoin supercycle.

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