ETH Reversal Awaits a Critical Bullish Breakout

• Ethereum trades near $3,165 after a 3-day rebound, but sellers defend the $3,261 to $3,351 resistance cluster.
• Intraday structure shows a tightening squeeze with weak momentum, signaling risk of another breakdown.
• ETF flows turn negative with a 13.02K ETH outflow, reducing conviction behind the recent recovery attempt.

Ethereum price today trades near $3,165 after a 3-day rebound from the $2,860 demand zone lifted price back into the middle of the recent range. The bounce eased downside pressure but has not changed the broader structure, with sellers still defending levels near $3,261 and $3,351, where moving averages and Fibonacci levels converge.

Trendline Break Signals Short Term Weakness

On the daily chart, Ethereum remains below the major downtrend line drawn from the October highs. Price failed to reclaim the zone around $3,261 to $3,351, which contains the 0.618 and 0.786 retracements, the 50 day EMA, and the underside of prior breakdown levels. Sellers defended that area aggressively, rejecting price at the upper Bollinger Band and forcing a pullback toward intraday support.

Price sits below the 200 day EMA at $3,472, placing Ethereum in a corrective structure rather than a recovery trend. The 20 and 50 EMAs slope downward, forming a resistance ceiling that traders will fade until the market proves otherwise. The structure remains fragile as long as price stays compressed under this cluster.

Support sits at $3,081, with deeper risk toward $3,016 and $2,864 if the rejection extends. The higher low near $2,860 remains the key level that defines whether the rebound continues. Losing that floor resets the broader structure and exposes the low from $2,618.

Intraday Structure Shows A Tightening Squeeze

Shorter timeframes show price trapped inside a symmetrical structure with higher lows and lower highs. Ethereum trades near $3,177, pressing against the upper boundary of the pattern, but momentum remains weak. RSI remains neutral after a series of bearish divergences, and the MACD has flattened around the zero line.

This intraday build suggests traders are waiting for new information before committing. A breakout above $3,200 would pressure shorts, but a sharp expansion requires volume and a clean close above the upper boundary. Without that confirmation, price risks drifting into another compression phase and eventually breaking lower.

Narrative Shifts Toward Macro Optimism

Macro sentiment improved after bullish forecasts from FundStrats Tom Lee, who said cryptocurrency prices have likely formed a cyclical bottom and argued that the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio is positioned for a structural breakout rather than a short lived repricing.

Lee sees 200x adoption ahead and expects Bitcoin to hit $300,000 by the end of 2026. The chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies also expects new highs in early 2026, reinforcing a longer-term bullish narrative for the sector.

Spot ETF data shows a clear reversal in positioning on December 4, with a net outflow of 13.02K ETH recorded while price traded near $3,187. The shift marks one of the larger negative flow prints in recent weeks, coming after a brief rebound from the late November washout.

Outlook. Will Ethereum Go Up

If Ethereum breaks $3,351 with rising volume, the trend risks turning higher toward $3,551 and eventually $3,893, where major supply remains. A breakout above $3,472 is the level that flips sentiment and signals that buyers are ready to compete.

If price loses $3,081 and breaks below $3,016, downside opens toward $2,864, with deeper risk toward $2,618 if ETF flows turn negative again. The market remains inside a corrective structure until proven otherwise, and momentum favors sellers until price reclaims the EMA cluster with conviction.