Arthur Hayes Predicts How to Become a Millionaire With Ethereum

Ethereum Treasuries Hold Nearly 5% of ETH Supply. Source: CoinGeckoPrivacy Remains Ethereums Biggest Weakness, But L2s Will Cover It

Hayes acknowledges Ethereum still lacks the privacy guarantees large institutions require. He notes that this is “the biggest thing Ethereum doesnt have yet,” though he says Vitalik Buterins roadmap is actively addressing it.

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Despite this gap, he argues institutional adoption will not be delayed. Instead, enterprises will deploy privacy-enabled Layer-2 networks while relying on Ethereum for settlement.

He believes Ethereum L1 remains the “security substrate” regardless of whether activity occurs on L2s like Arbitrum or Optimism.

This aligns with current ecosystem trends. Exchange balances are at multi-year lows, and whales have accumulated over 900,000 ETH in recent weeks, according to Santiment data.

Institutional architecture continues to form around the Ethereum base layer, even as fees fall amid L2 migration.

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A Narrow Field of Winners: Ethereum First, Solana Second

Hayes sees the future of public blockchains consolidating around a very small group. He places Ethereum as the clear long-term winner, with Solana in a distant but durable second place.

He credits Solanas rise from $7 to $300 to intense meme coin activity in 2023 and 2024. However, he states Solana “needs a new trick” to outperform Ethereum again.

While he expects Solana to remain relevant, he does not expect it to match Ethereums institutional role or long-term price strength.

Hayes views nearly all other L1s as structurally weak. He dismissed high-FDV chains such as Monad as over-inflated projects likely to collapse after an initial pump.

Monad wont be able to compete with Ethereum

I have no belief that this is a legitimate blockchain.

Itll never have any real usage.

— Arthur Hayes

if you understand network effects, you know Ethereums here to stay at the top.

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50 ETH to Become a Millionaire by Next Election

Hayes offered his most explicit numerical prediction when asked how much ETH one would need to become a millionaire in the next cycle.

He stated that Ethereum could reach $20,000, implying that 50 ETH would be enough to reach a seven-figure portfolio.

The BitMex founder expects this price target to materialize by the next US presidential election. His outlook aligns with the current supply environment: exchange reserves are shrinking, institutions are accumulating, and treasury buyers like BitMine continue to deploy hundreds of millions into ETH.

Arthur Hayes was just asked about Tom Lee saying $ETH could flip $BTC.

If Ethereum fails to meet these expectations, Hayes says it will be due to narrative breakdown.

Also, if stablecoin usage slows or institutions retreat from on-chain trading, Bitcoin could outperform Ethereum for a prolonged period.

However, he argues that current market structure favors Ethereums long-term dominance—especially as banks prepare to execute Web3 strategies on public infrastructure.