Ethereum Bearish Structure Meets Bullish Supply Signal – What Happens Next

Ethereum is facing renewed selling pressure as market uncertainty deepens and confidence continues to erode across the broader crypto landscape. After weeks of fragile price action and failed recovery attempts, ETH has struggled to attract sustained demand, pushing an increasing number of analysts to warn that the market may be entering the early stages of a bear cycle.

Volatility remains elevated, sentiment is weak, and traders appear hesitant to commit capital as downside risks grow more pronounced.

Recent on-chain and technical analysis from CryptoQuant highlights why concerns are mounting. Ethereums price structure has tightened into a descending triangle formation, a pattern that often emerges during periods of distribution rather than accumulation.

Price remains capped below a well-defined downtrend line, while key moving averages continue to act as overhead resistance, limiting upside momentum. This compression reflects a market where sellers maintain control, even as prices attempt to stabilize.

Historically, this type of technical setup increases the probability of a downside resolution. In Ethereums case, the $2,800 level has become a critical support zone. A sustained break below it would likely confirm a broader bearish continuation, potentially accelerating losses as stop orders are triggered.

On-Chain Supply Tightening Challenges Ethereums Bearish Technical Outlook

While Ethereums price structure continues to reflect stress, on-chain data is telling a more nuanced story. Analysis shared by CryptoOnchain highlights a sharp contraction in the amount of ETH available for immediate sale on major exchanges, particularly Binance. The Ethereum Exchange Supply Ratio on Binance has fallen to 0.032, its lowest reading since September 2024, pointing to a meaningful reduction in liquid supply despite ongoing price weakness.

From a trend perspective, Ethereum remains capped below its key daily moving averages. The faster moving average has rolled over sharply and continues to act as immediate resistance, while the 111-day and 200-day simple moving averages sit higher, converging in the $3,400–$3,600 range. This layered resistance suggests that any upside attempts are likely to face strong selling pressure unless momentum improves meaningfully.

Price action over recent weeks reflects indecision rather than recovery. ETH has been oscillating in a tight range between roughly $2,850 and $3,050. Indicating short-term stabilization but not a confirmed reversal. Volume supports this view, as selling spikes dominated the initial breakdown, while subsequent rebounds have lacked strong participation from buyers.

Technically, the $2,800–$2,900 zone remains critical. Holding this area preserves the possibility of base-building, but a decisive breakdown would open the door to a deeper retracement. For structure to improve, Ethereum would need to reclaim the $3,200–$3,300 region and regain acceptance above its declining daily averages.