Bitcoin returns will be strong but 'not spectacular' over next decade: Exec

Bitcoin may post steady returns over the next ten years, but exceptionally large year-on-year gains are unlikely, according to Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan.

“I think we‘re in a 10-year grind upward of strong returns. It’s not spectacular returns, [but] strong returns, lower volatility, some up and down,” Hougan said on CNBC on Friday.

Hougan is sticking with his forecast that 2026 will be a positive year for Bitcoin (BTC), an outlook he first shared in July ahead of Bitcoins run to a new all-time high of $125,100 in October. “I think next year will be up,” Hougan said.

“Slow-moving institutional buying” is protecting Bitcoins downside

Meanwhile, ReserveOne chief investment officer Sebastian Beau said it is still unclear whether Bitcoins four-year cycle is “dead.” “All-time highs were 125,000, that was in early October, we are bordering on $87,000 today, down 30% relatively quickly, pretty painful,” Beau said.

Market participants are divided on whether the cycle has ended, with the timing of Bitcoins October highs mirroring past four-year cycle peaks, suggesting a possible down year in 2026.

Hougan said the “fast-moving retail crowd” is one reason behind Bitcoins year-end decline, as retail investors rotated out in “anticipation of that four-year cycle.”

Bitcoin is trading at $87,818 at the time of publication, down 3.81% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan appeared on CNBC on Friday. Source: CNBC

Hougan said that Bitcoin is down 30%, rather than the 60% declines seen in past cycles, because of “persistent, slow-moving institutional buying.”

However, some analysts are still cautious. Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently predicted that Bitcoin could fall as low as $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026.

Trump administration unlikely to have major impact on Bitcoins price

Bitcoin began 2025 by reaching new all-time highs near $109,000 following Donald Trumps inauguration as US president, which was was widely seen as a catalyst of the assets early-year rally.

However, Hougan said that the Trump administration is unlikely to provide much more upside for Bitcoin‘s price. “There’s not much more they can marginally do for Bitcoin,” Hougan said, pointing to clearer regulatory positioning of the asset.