ETH Market Structure Analysis: January 18, 2026 Trend Status

The current market structure remains solid as an uptrend; higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) pattern intact. However, proximity to $3,656 resistance and Supertrend bearish signal increase the shift risk.

Market Structure Overview

ETH/USDT is trading at $3,365.82 as of January 18, 2026, showing a 1.41% rise in the last 24 hours. The daily range was between $3,296.34 – $3,368.82. The market structure generally maintains its bullish character: positioned above short-term EMA20 ($3,193.33), RSI at 63.76 in the neutral-bullish zone, and MACD histogram supporting positive momentum. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis detects 14 strong levels across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 3 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1S/4R on 3D, 3S/3R balance on 1W. This indicates structural dominance of the uptrend, but resistance weight in higher timeframes (especially 3D) requires attention.

To understand the market structure, lets recall the basic concepts: Trend is defined by swing highs (HH: higher highs) and swing lows (HL: higher lows). In the current situation, recent swing lows are higher than previous lows (HL pattern), and swing highs are expanding (HH). This signals buyer control. However, a Change of Character (CHoCH) awaits a lower low (LL) formation, which has not occurred yet. Along with the Supertrend bearish signal ($3,642.81 resistance), a consolidation phase where momentum may slow down could be observed. No ETH-specific news flow; general crypto sentiment is BTC-focused.

Trend Analysis: Up or Down？Uptrend Signals

The higher highs and higher lows pattern clearly confirms the uptrend. The latest swing low at $3,191.6670 (score: 75/100) is significantly higher than the previous major low at $2,623.5700 (63/100) – strengthening the HL structure. Price recovered from $3,191 to $3,368 and is currently holding around $3,365 without testing HLs. Short-term swing high $3,368.82 (daily high) hasnt surpassed the previous $3,406.5883 yet, but the overall structure trends toward HH: potential to approach previous cycle high $3,656.9811. Holding above EMA20, MACD bullish cross, and RSI 60+ support buyer dominance. This pattern represents classic trend continuation; buyers enter at higher levels with each HL, keeping sellers low.

Downtrend Risk

For a bearish shift, lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) should be monitored. As long as it stays above $3,282.9222 support (71/100), no LH has formed; however, if the $3,368 high remains below $3,406, an LH signal may emerge. The main risk is a break of $3,191.6670 (Break of Structure – BOS bearish): This triggers CHoCH and leads to LL. If Supertrend bearish (above $3,642 target invalid), combined with BTC dominance increase, general pressure on altcoins may form. If RSI approaches 70, watch for divergence; momentum loss accelerates LH/LL.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS confirms trend change: For bullish BOS, $3,656.9811 (68/100) swing high must break – this creates new HH and confirms continuation. $3,406.5883 (60/100) is an intermediate level; momentum increase expected on daily close above. Bearish BOS is a daily close below $3,282.9222: This breaks minor HL and descends to $3,191.6670. Critical CHoCH level below $3,191.6670 – breakout confirms LL, shifts structure to LH/LL, and opens path to $2,623. In MTF, 1W supports (3S) strengthen these levels; 3D resistances (4R) may limit upside. BOS concept: Structure defined by recent swings; breakout creates new extreme and provides invalidation.

Swing Points and Their ImportanceRecent Swing Highs

$3,656.9811 (score 68/100): Major resistance, latest cycle high. Breakout for HH continuation, target ~$4 structural extension. $3,406.5883 (60/100): Intermediate swing high, pullback target. If price tests and rejects here, LH risk; breakout for bullish impulse. These points collect seller liquidity – breakout releases buyers.

Recent Swing Lows

$3,191.6670 (75/100): Strongest support, HL confirmation. Hold preserves uptrend; breakout CHoCH. $3,282.9222 (71/100): Recent HL, range low $3,296 tested and bounced – strong buyer defense. $2,623.5700 (63/100): Major low, deep correction level. Swing lows are buyer accumulation zones; hold renews momentum.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $95,521 (+0.10%) in uptrend but Supertrend bearish, resistance $95,581/$97,924. ETH highly correlated with BTC (~0.85+); BTC supports ($94,151, $92,268) hold ETH $3,191 equivalent. If BTC breaks $95,581, it lifts ETH to $3,656; however, BTC dominance caution (Supertrend bearish) crushes alts – ETH shows relative strength (+1.41% while BTC flat). If BTC falls below $88,303, ETH bearish cascade to $2. Main watch: BTC key levels trigger ETH BOSs.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Uptrend intact (HH/HL), hold above $3,191 favors continuation – $3,656 BOS enables $4 extension. Bearish invalidation below $3,191 BOS, path to $2,623 LL. Short-term bullish (EMA20+, MACD), medium-term caution (Supertrend R). For trading, check ETH Spot Analysis and ETH Futures Analysis. Structure is dynamic; every candle carries BOS potential – patience and confirmation essential. (Word count: ~1,050)

This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacals market views and methodology.