Tom Lees BitMine Stock Risks 60% Crash – Here’s Why

Tom Lee‘s BitMine stock has struggled to recover despite its deep connection to Ethereum. The BitMine stock price has traded mostly flat in recent days and remains sharply down, 30% over the past month, closely mirroring Ethereum’s own decline. This weakness comes even as the company continued increasing its Ethereum exposure during 2026.

Normally, such aggressive accumulation would support price strength. But the BMNR stock price is still showing signs of structural weakness. This raises an uncomfortable question. Why is the stock not responding positively to its growing Ethereum position？

BitMines Ethereum Buying Continues, But Two Metrics Show Institutions Still Hesitant

BitMine significantly increased its Ethereum holdings in 2026, adding 279,158 ETH to its treasury as of February 22. The latest addition occurred between February 17 and February 22, when over 51,000 ETH were added.

This steady accumulation confirms the company‘s long-term conviction in Ethereum. Yet the stock’s technical structure tells a different story.

ETH Stash In 2026: CoinGecko

BitMine remains stuck inside a bear flag pattern, which forms when a temporary rebound happens within a broader downtrend. These patterns often resolve with another leg lower if strong buying does not return. For now, the projected risk sits at near 60%, the poles height.

At the same time, the BitMine stock continues trading below its monthly Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), currently near $20.38.

VWAP represents the average price weighted by volume and is widely used as a proxy for institutional positioning. Trading below VWAP suggests institutions are still holding defensive positions and have not fully returned as buyers.

Institutional Flow Looks Weak: TradingView

This hesitation also appears in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator. CMF measures whether large investors are buying or selling by combining price and volume data.

While CMF has been rising against the downtrend since late November, indicating that selling pressure is slowing, it remains below zero. This means institutional selling has eased, but strong buying has not yet begun.

Together, VWAP and CMF show that despite BitMines aggressive Ethereum accumulation, institutional investors remain cautious.

The historical significance of breaking above the VWAP line is obvious: when it happened earlier in December, the BitMine stock price surged by almost 39% to a local peak.

If institutions are not buying yet, what is keeping the stock from falling further？

Retail Buying and Bullish Divergence Offer Temporary Support

Retail investors appear to be providing the main support for now.

The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator, which tracks cumulative buying and selling pressure, has been rising even while BitMines price trended lower between February 9 and February 20. This divergence suggests that retail investors have been accumulating shares during periods of weakness.

Retail Participation Continues: TradingView

Momentum indicators show a similar pattern. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum, has formed a bullish divergence from November 21, 2025, to February 12, 2026.

While BitMines price made lower lows, RSI formed higher lows. This pattern often signals that selling pressure is weakening.

BitMIne Stock Flashes Divergence: TradingView

This divergence did trigger a near 16% rebound earlier, but the recovery stalled and didn‘t reverse the broader trend. This failure likely reflects BitMine’s heavy dependence on Ethereum, as its large ETH treasury makes the stock highly sensitive to Ethereums continued weakness.

This shows retail buying alone has not been strong enough to fully shift market sentiment. The next move now depends entirely on whether key price levels break.

Critical BitMine Stock Price Levels To Track Now

The BitMine stock now sits at a critical technical crossroads.

The first important resistance level is $21.76. Moving above this level would push the stock above VWAP and signal improving strength. This would suggest institutional buyers are starting to return.

However, the broader bearish structure remains active unless BitMine breaks above $30.52, which would likely weaken the bear flag pattern. On the downside, the most critical support level sits at $18.60.

BMNR Price Analysis: TradingView

If BitMine falls below this level, the bearish structure would strengthen significantly. Falling under $18.60, accompanied by a drop in RSI, would also weaken the current bullish divergence structure by forming a new local bottom. Plus, it would confirm the breakdown of the bear flag.

This could open the path toward $15.08, with further downside risk toward $11.25 if selling accelerates.

BitMines Ethereum accumulation shows long-term conviction. But until institutional buyers return and key resistance levels break, the stock remains vulnerable to another decline.