Circle (CRCL) shares jump 19% as earnings beat estimates

Circle (CRCL) shares jumped more than 20% after the issuer of the second-largest stablecoin said the amount of USDC in circulation grew 72% last year and posted fourth-quarter earnings that beat analyst estimates.

Total revenue, most of which is income from reserves backing the token, rose 77% from the year-earlier quarter to $770 million, the company said. Net income of $133.4 million, or 43 cents a share, rose more than 40-fold. Analysts had forecast 16 cents a share, according to FactSet data.

Circles earnings are a reminder of the relative strength of the stablecoin sector even as the wider cryptocurrency market has been depressed for several months. In addition to their use in cryptocurrency markets, the tokens, whose value is pegged against a real-world asset such as the dollar, are finding increasing application in international payment systems.

Expansion of the Circle Payments Network (CPN) saw the enrollment 55 financial institutions and another 74 going through the eligibility process as of Feb. 20, according to Circles announcement.

Circle‘s USDC is the second largest stablecoin with a market capitalization of nearly $75 billion. This makes it a very distant second to Tether’s USDT ($183 billion) but still a long way ahead of any of its other competitors.

“The stablecoin market is, despite the efforts of main other firms to enter and complete, a market of two major issuers,” Circle founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire said on an earnings calls on Wednesday.

This reflects the very durable networks effects that we maintain that are significant barriers to entry and adoption.

While USDT remains larger than every other stablecoin in existence — including USDC — combined, its market share is trending downward. Its share currently sits slightly below 60%, having dropped 0.8% this month and extending a 1% dip in January.

CRCL shares rose to as high as $75.56 during morning trading, around 23% higher than Tuesdays closing price of $61.39.

Long outperform-rated Circle

Investment bank William Blair said investors should be long outperform-rated Circle (CRCL), calling it one of a short list of high-quality crypto infrastructure plays in public markets alongside Coinbase (COIN).

Analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury said Circles fourth-quarter results topped both its own estimates and Wall Street expectations, with revenue less distribution costs (RLDC) and adjusted EBITDA beating its model by 10% and 12%, respectively.

Investors are likely to focus on Circles 40.1% fourth-quarter RLDC margin, which came in 240 basis points above its estimate and 370 basis points ahead of the Street, the analysts said in the Wednesday report.

The report attributed the upside to a higher mix of on-platform USDC, with tokens held directly on Circles platform now accounting for nearly 18% of average USDC in circulation, as well as stronger-than-expected subscription and transaction revenue.

The timing of broader USDC commercialization remains uncertain, the analysts said.