Polymarket Odds Spike 30% After Claude Rejects Pentagon Surveillance Demands

Within hours, YES odds surged to 49%. Almost a coin flip. Traders suddenly saw the ban as equally likely. The 30% spike showed how much weight the market put on Anthropics refusal.

Trading volume reached $303,000 to $318,000. Significant for a niche AI policy question. Liquidity stayed moderate, whereas some users complained that large sell orders caused temporary price swings.

The Polymarket market became a real-time oracle. Traditional media moved more slowly. Traders with money at risk processed news instantly.

Polymarket Cuts Ban Odds on Claude to 36%

The 49% spike didnt last. Within hours, the odds corrected to 34%. Still higher than pre-rejection levels but far below the panic spike. At press time, the number sits at 13%, down over 70% since those staggeringly high ban hope numbers.

Traders reassessed the situation. The Pentagon needs advanced AI. Claude ranks among the top models. Anthropic leads in some safety benchmarks. Banning Claude means losing access to one of the best systems.

Ban Odds Drop | Source: Polymarket

The Polymarket correction suggests traders believe the Pentagon is bluffing. Threats are cheap. Actually, banning is costly. If the military needed unrestricted AI, they could use models from companies that already agreed.

Some analysis pointed to precedent. If the government forces Anthropic to comply via the Defense Production Act, other AI companies lose power. But if Anthropic resists successfully, it sets limits on government control.

For now, Polymarket prices an 87% chance that the ban doesnt happen. Traders think Anthropic and the Pentagon will find a compromise. Or the Pentagon will quietly drop demands rather than lose access. The market bets on pragmatism now.