Coinbase Flags 'Peak Pessimism' as Bitcoin Outperforms US Equities

Bitcoins outperformance against U.S. equities is reviving bullish sentiment across crypto markets, with Coinbase Institutional signaling that the industry may be moving beyond what it described as peak pessimism as participation and macro conditions begin shifting.

Bitcoin Strength Sparks Institutional Optimism as Crypto Markets Eye Sustained Breakout

Renewed strength in bitcoin relative to U.S. equities is fueling optimism about a potential shift in crypto market sentiment. Coinbase Institutional, part of crypto exchange Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN), shared analysis on social media platform X on March 13, highlighting bitcoins stronger performance and improving market participation.

Coinbase Institutional stated:

“This evolving landscape, coupled with BTC‘s outperformance against U.S. equities since March, suggests we might be moving past ’peak pessimism.”

The post pointed to geopolitical turmoil disrupting traditional markets while bitcoin shows relative strength against U.S. stocks.

Alongside the post, the group shared a chart tracking 90-day rolling z-scores for bitcoin, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite, based on data from Coin Metrics, Tradingview, and Coinbase. A z-score measures how far an asset‘s performance deviates from its historical average. The visualization showed bitcoin’s z-score rebounding toward neutral territory by March 2026 after a sharp dip earlier in the year, while both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq displayed weakening momentum.

Additional points in the thread referenced macroeconomic signals and increased crypto market activity. The division noted that cooling U.S. nonfarm payroll data challenges the narrative of a resilient labor market and could affect risk appetite across global markets.

“An increase in our systematic leverage ratio reflects an improvement in the level of crypto market participation,” the Coinbase Institutional arm detailed, adding:

“However, we remain cautiously optimistic, as we await confirmation of this trend and monitor market participation for signs of a sustained upward movement.”