Bitcoin Price Traded Near $76,000 as Inflows Signaled Sell Risk

The market reaction aligned with expectations ahead of the Federal Reserves March meeting. CME Group futures data showed a 98.9% probability that rates would remain unchanged. Markets also priced in a 1.1% chance of a hike, reflecting lingering inflation concerns amid geopolitical tensions.

Associated Press reporting suggested policymakers could signal no rate cuts this year. That outlook pressured risk assets, even as Bitcoin BTC price held near recent highs. Traders appeared cautious, positioning ahead of macro signals rather than extending aggressive long positions.

Onchain Data Showed Resistance Near Realized Price Levels

CryptoQuant analysis showed Bitcoin price approached resistance at the lower band of the traders realized price. Moreno explained that this metric reflects the average cost basis of active market participants. Historically, it acts as resistance during bearish phases.

TradingView data confirmed that the asset tested this zone multiple times within a short period. Each attempt failed to break higher, reinforcing the resistance level. The broader realized price stood around 84,700, marking a higher threshold if momentum continued.

Separate onchain data from tugbachain showed the Market Value to Realized Value ratio near 1.3. That level indicated Bitcoin (BTC) traded close to its cost basis, with a limited speculative premium. The reading pointed to a reset phase rather than a clear directional trend.

Miner behavior supported that view. Outflows dropped to about 6,800 Bitcoin by mid-March, down from roughly 28,000 during early February stress. The Puell Multiple remained near 0.69, suggesting miners faced neither pressure nor excess profit conditions.

Stablecoin Inflows Add Liquidity to Bitcoin Price Rally

Amr Taha reported that Binance recorded a $2.2 billion Tether inflow on March 18. The deposit marked the largest single-day stablecoin inflow since November 2025. The move ended a period of muted liquidity across major exchanges.

The timing aligned with Bitcoin price pushing toward new local highs. Large stablecoin inflows often act as deployable capital, which traders use to buy crypto assets. This shift occurred because institutions and whales appeared to fund positions during the rally.

Taha noted that such liquidity could absorb selling pressure from rising exchange deposits. It also reflected confidence among larger players, who entered the market as volatility increased. However, the presence of both inflows and selling signals suggested a mixed short-term outlook.

The broader structure showed supply-side pressure easing. Reduced miner selling and steady institutional demand helped stabilize the market. Still, demand had not fully responded to match the improved supply conditions.

Bitcoin price now faces immediate resistance near the realized price band, while macro signals remain uncertain ahead of the Federal Reserve decision.