Bitcoin to Hit $76,000 if Strait of Hormuz Flows Normalize: Wintermute

Bitcoin climbed back above $70,000 as easing geopolitical tensions reduced pressure on risk assets. Ethereum led institutional inflows, while gold posted its sharpest decline in decades.

Crypto Rallies as Bitcoin Surges Past $70K While Gold Sees Historic Decline

Crypto markets staged a sharp recovery at the start of the week, with bitcoin reclaiming the $70,000 level as easing geopolitical tensions lifted risk sentiment. The move followed a temporary pause in U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, which helped cool oil prices and reduce inflation fears.

Wintermutes latest market outlook noted that bitcoin rose from the low $68,000 range to trade above $70,000, briefly approaching $71,000. The rebound came after a volatile week in which the asset had fallen roughly 3.4%, pressured by rising oil prices and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, but its outlook remains firm. Most policymakers now expect little to no rate cuts through 2026.

Geopolitics remains the key driver. Last week, disruptions in the Middle East pushed Brent crude above $112, its highest level in years. The spike fueled inflation concerns and weighed on global markets. However, the latest pause in hostilities has eased some of that pressure, with oil prices falling and risk appetite returning.

Ethereum stood out during the turbulence, with investors appearing drawn to ethereum‘s staking yield, especially in a high-rate environment. In contrast, bitcoin ETFs saw short-term outflows during last week’s selloff, though overall flows remain stable.

Gold, often seen as a safe haven, moved in the opposite direction. The metal dropped more than 10%, marking its worst weekly performance in over four decades. A stronger U.S. dollar and forced liquidations contributed to the decline.

Wintermute noted that “The macro ceiling has shifted. Trumps five-day pause temporarily lowers the geopolitical risk premium in oil markets and resets positioning into the March 27 options expiry.”

Looking ahead, the markets direction will depend on developments in the Middle East. If oil prices stabilize and shipping routes normalize, bitcoin could retest the $74,000 to $76,000 range. However, renewed disruptions may push prices back toward the mid-$60,000 levels.

For now, crypto markets are responding quickly to shifts in global risk sentiment, highlighting their growing sensitivity to macroeconomic and geopolitical events.

FAQ ????

• Why did Bitcoin rise above $70,000？

  Bitcoin gained as geopolitical tensions eased, lowering oil prices and improving overall market sentiment.

• What role did the Federal Reserve play？

  The Fed kept rates unchanged but signaled fewer cuts ahead, which continues to limit strong upside for crypto.

• Why is Ethereum seeing strong inflows？

  Investors are attracted to ethereums staking yield, especially in a high-interest-rate environment.

• How did gold perform during this period？

  Gold fell sharply, posting its worst weekly drop since 1983 due to a stronger dollar and market liquidations.