AUD: Preferred G10 relief trade on de-escalation – OCBC

Finance

AUD: Preferred G10 relief trade on de-escalation – OCBC

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlights Australian Dollar (AUD) as the preferred G10 expression of de-escalation and pro-growth after the US-Iran ceasefire. They note that high-beta energy importers like Swedish Krona (SEK) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD) led the snapback, but AUD stands out as a pro-cyclical currency relatively resilient to energy shocks and potentially supported by firmer industrial metals prices if global growth improves.

Pro‑cyclical play with growth leverage

“In G10 FX, high-beta energy importers such as SEK and NZD led the snapback after being the main underperformers during the conflict.”

“Our preferred relief trade remains AUD.”

“It is not only a pro-cyclical currency that is relatively resilient to energy shocks, but it could also benefit from firmer industrial metals prices if further de-escalation lifts global growth as the energy shock fades.”