Bitcoin Slips Below Key Holder Cost Basis Ahead Of $1.74B Options Expiry

Bitcoin is trading below a key cost threshold that short-term holders paid to acquire it — a sign that many recent buyers are sitting on losses heading into one of the largest options expiry events of the month.

Bitcoin: Bears Hold The Edge Going Into Expiry

Glassnode data shows Bitcoin is currently priced under the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $78,900, and also below the True Market Mean of $78,000.

Support is seen further down, in the $65,000–$70,000 range. That backdrop sets a cautious tone as roughly 23,000 Bitcoin options contracts — worth $1.74 billion — are set to expire today on derivatives exchange Deribit.

The put-call ratio for those contracts sits at 1.10, meaning more traders are betting on price declines than on gains.

Bitcoins max pain price — the level where the greatest number of options expire worthless — is $76,000, slightly below where it was trading at press time around $77,200.

Deribit has flagged the settlement as one to watch closely, with data showing a 95% probability that Bitcoin options expire above that $76,000 mark. Heavy volume is concentrated at the $75,500 and $77,000 strike prices.

In the past 24 hours, the put-call ratio for Bitcoin trading activity climbed to 0.73, while overall volume dropped. The Federal Reserves decision to hold interest rates unchanged contributed to the slowdown.

Ethereum Sits Below Its Own Pain Point

Ethereum is facing similar pressure. More than 175,000 $ETH options worth $400 million are expiring on Deribit today, with a put-call ratio of 0.95. In the last 24 hours alone, put volume rose sharply past call volume, pushing that ratio to 1.17 — a sign traders are adjusting for potential downside.

What makes Ethereum‘s situation slightly different is where it’s trading relative to max pain. The $ETH max pain price is $2,325, but the token was changing hands around $2,284 at the time of writing — already below that level. Its 24-hour range ran from $2,232 to $2,293. Trading volume fell 45% over the past day.

BTCUSD trading at $78,209 on the 24-hour chart: TradingViewBroader Pressures Weigh On Crypto Markets

The options expiry is not happening in a vacuum. US PCE inflation came in at a three-year high of 3.5%, rattling broader markets and prompting profit-taking across crypto.

Oil prices rose to $106 a barrel as the US maintained a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Reports indicate US President Donald Trump has rejected Irans offer to end the standoff, with reports of a possible escalation adding to market unease.

Together, those factors have kept buyers cautious. Crypto markets saw widespread selling after the inflation data dropped, and uncertainty around the geopolitical situation has not eased.

Whether todays options expiry adds to that pressure — or passes without incident — may depend on whether Bitcoin can hold above the $76,000 mark when contracts settle.