Ethereum’s smart money index is diverging from price again - What next?

The tides are changing for Ethereum [ETH]. Larger investors may be positioning differently, while token supply continues to shrink.

Traders have been showing greater interest in ETH again, so theres certainly a fair amount of hope too.

Smart money flow diverging from price

According to data from Alphractal, ETHs Smart Money Flow Index has been diverging from the price! This metric tracks how smart-money positioning is behaving compared to market flows.

At the time of writing, it looked a bit familiar.

Source: Cryptoquant

Something similar took place a few weeks before ETHs big move in early 2024. That does not mean the same rally will repeat itself, but it does make the current state worth watching.

The price didnt seem to fully reflect the change in positioning either.

Additionally, AMBCrypto had previously reported that Ethereums stablecoin supply climbed to a record $180 billion, while tokenized fund assets on the network crossed $22.5 billion. This implied that the network is leading the tokenized asset market as well.

Reserves drop, OI rises

According to CryptoQuant, ETH exchange reserves fell to around 14.9 million ETH at press time. The numbers have been on a downtrend from the 20-21 million ETH range seen through much of 2024 and 2025.

Source: Cryptoquant

Put simply, there is less immediately available supply of Ethereum for selling.

At the same time, Ethereums Open interest recovered to around $15.7 billion across exchanges. At the time of writing, it was still far below the late-2025 peak above $30 billion. However, it seemed to be moving higher again after the reset earlier this year.