Can Solana price overcome double-top resistance and rally above $100?

Momentum indicators have weakened but have not fully rolled over into bearish territory. The MACD histogram on the daily timeframe remains negative, although selling momentum has gradually faded over the past several sessions. Weekly MACD readings have also started stabilizing after months of persistent downside pressure, raising the possibility of a medium-term trend reversal if buyers reclaim higher resistance levels.

From a structural perspective, traders are closely monitoring the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement region between $87 and $90. Analysts view sustained closes above that area as an early confirmation that Solana may be transitioning out of its post-double-top consolidation phase. A breakout above $90 could expose liquidity near $95 before opening the path toward the key psychological barrier at $100.

According to analyst Javon Marks, Solana is once again holding a long-term support area that previously triggered explosive rallies. In a recent market update, Marks said one historical rebound from the level generated an 80% rally while another produced gains exceeding 270%.

“With prices showing strength off of this support level again, we are watching for an over 165% climb to test a key technical level at $233.8 again,” Marks wrote in a May 22 X post.

Everyone loved $SOL at $295. Nobody wants it at $86. Thats usually the point.$SOL is trading at $86.83 on the weekly chart 70% down from the $295 highs and sitting just below the dotted support zone around $95.

The weekly EMA 50 at $124 was lost earlier this year and has been…

— Dami-Defi (@DamiDefi) May 21, 2026

Beyond directional price action, derivatives positioning suggests a sharp volatility move could emerge if resistance levels begin failing. CoinGlass liquidation heatmaps show dense liquidation clusters concentrated between $90 and $95, with another large band sitting just above current price levels.

A decisive move into that region could trigger forced short liquidations and accelerate upside momentum through a classic squeeze setup. Market data cited by traders indicates short sellers recently absorbed nearly five times more liquidation pressure than longs.

Open interest has also started rising gradually after several weeks of deleveraging, suggesting traders are rebuilding directional positions ahead of a potential breakout attempt. Funding rates, while not excessively bullish, have stabilized near neutral territory, a setup many derivatives traders consider healthier than heavily crowded long positioning.

Meanwhile, Solana‘s total value locked has shown signs of stabilizing after months of contraction. Analysts tracking on-chain liquidity argue that a sustained TVL recovery would likely strengthen spot demand for SOL tokens while reinforcing confidence in Solana’s decentralized finance ecosystem. Historically, periods of expanding TVL have coincided with stronger medium-term price performance for SOL.

What could invalidate Solanas bullish breakout thesis？

Despite improving sentiment, several downside risks continue threatening the bullish setup. The most immediate concern remains Bitcoins fragile position near major support levels as global macro uncertainty continues pressuring risk assets.

Oil markets remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations and shipping disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz. Any renewed spike in crude prices could reignite inflation concerns and reduce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, creating another wave of risk-off pressure across crypto markets.

At the same time, Solanas technical structure still carries meaningful bearish risk unless buyers reclaim the $95–$100 resistance band decisively. Repeated rejections beneath double-top resistance often weaken bullish momentum over time, particularly if accompanied by declining spot demand.

Failure to hold the $84–$85 support region could expose lower liquidity zones near $80 and potentially reopen the path toward the March lows. CoinGlass heatmap data already shows notable downside liquidation pockets sitting below current prices, meaning volatility could accelerate rapidly if sellers regain control.

The longer-term weekly chart also shows SOL continuing to trade well below its 2025 highs despite recent stabilization. Until the asset reclaims the major breakdown region near $104, some traders may continue treating rallies as temporary relief bounces within a larger bearish market structure.

Solana price weekly chart — May 22 | Source: crypto.news

Still, improving institutional narratives, expanding enterprise adoption, growing DePIN revenues, and mounting short-side leverage continue giving bulls a credible case for another breakout attempt.

If Bitcoin stabilizes and macro conditions avoid further deterioration, Solana may soon test whether the market still has enough momentum to finally clear the stubborn double-top ceiling and reclaim triple-digit territory.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.