Will Solana price drop under $80 as a risky pattern emerges?

The neckline support for the structure sits near the $78 level, which has repeatedly acted as a key defensive area since March. A confirmed breakdown below that region could validate the bearish pattern and potentially open the door for a larger move toward the low-$70 range.

Pattern projections derived from the height of the structure suggest downside targets could extend toward $64 if panic selling accelerates.

Alongside the double-top formation, Solana remains below its Supertrend resistance near $94.80, indicating that sellers continue controlling the higher timeframe trend. Daily candles have also struggled to close above the descending resistance band formed after the late-April rejection, keeping bullish momentum suppressed.

Momentum indicators remain mixed but continue to favor bears overall. The Aroon indicator shows Aroon Up near 85.7% while Aroon Down remains near zero, signaling that short-term rebounds are still occurring. However, the indicator has historically produced several failed bullish signals during Solanas prolonged consolidation phase this year, limiting confidence in a sustained recovery attempt.

CoinGlass liquidation heatmap data shows dense leverage clusters concentrated between $83 and $81, with another major liquidity pocket sitting near $78. Those zones could become magnets for price action if volatility increases during the coming sessions.

Solana liquidation heatmap — May 25 | Source: CoinGlass

Funding rates across perpetual futures markets have also turned deeply negative, indicating aggressive short positioning from traders expecting additional downside. Negative funding often signals bearish sentiment dominance, particularly when paired with weakening spot demand and falling network activity.

Open interest has remained elevated despite recent price weakness, a combination that often precedes sharp liquidation-driven moves.

If Solana loses the $83 support floor decisively, cascading long liquidations could accelerate the decline toward the psychological $80 threshold very quickly.

Analyst DonaXBτ warned that Solanas current structure resembles conditions seen before previous major drawdowns. In a recent market update, he said the setup “looks very similar to Q3 2022,” adding that a temporary bull trap could emerge before another deeper correction.

The trader suggested Solana could eventually revisit the $47 region in a worst-case capitulation scenario if market conditions continue deteriorating.

Despite the bearish setup, buyers have continued defending the $83–$84 area aggressively during recent sessions. Several long lower wicks on the daily timeframe indicate dip-buying activity remains active near support, preventing a clean breakdown so far.

What could invalidate the bearish Solana thesis？

A sustained recovery above the $90 resistance zone would weaken the immediate bearish structure and potentially force short sellers to unwind positions. CoinGlass liquidity data shows a heavy concentration of short liquidation levels above $87 and $90, meaning a breakout could trigger a rapid squeeze higher if momentum returns.

Improving macro conditions could also stabilize risk appetite across crypto markets. Softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data or any signals that the Federal Reserve may ease policy later this year would likely support renewed inflows into altcoins. Bitcoin reclaiming higher resistance zones could similarly improve sentiment toward Solana and other large-cap cryptocurrencies.

Network activity remains another critical variable. Any revival in meme coin trading volumes or a sharp rebound in Solana-based decentralized finance activity could improve fee generation and restore speculative demand for SOL. Developers also continue expanding infrastructure across the ecosystem despite the recent slowdown in user activity.

For now, however, the technical structure remains vulnerable while macro conditions continue to favor defensive positioning.

Unless bulls reclaim the $90–$94 resistance range soon, Solana risks slipping below the critical $80 threshold as traders continue pricing in weaker liquidity conditions and rising downside pressure across the crypto market.