DXY: Dollar risks upside break – BBH

Finance

DXY: Dollar risks upside break – BBH

Brown Brothers Harrimans Elias Haddad notes that resilient US growth and sticky PCE inflation keep the Dollar supported despite improved risk sentiment from progress on a US-Iran deal.

Dollar Index poised for range break

“We are sticking to our view the dollar index (DXY) risk overshooting the upper end of its nearly one year 96.00-100.00 range in the near term. Resilient US economic activity in both absolute and relative terms outweigh the drag to USD from easing geopolitical fears.”

“Both headline and core PCE inflation are overshooting the FOMC‘s 2026 projection of 2.7%. Moreover, core services less housing PCE printed for a second straight month at 3.5% y/y in April, well above the level consistent with a sustained return to the Fed’s 2.0% target.”

“The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model real GDP growth estimate for Q2 cooled but continues to point at above-trend growth. GDPNow suggests the US economy will expand at an annualized rate of 3.8% in Q2, down from 4.3% in its previous release on May 21. In parallel, the May PMI data points to a widening US growth edge over peers.”

“Encouraging progress over a US-Iran deal has turbocharged the rally in risk assets. Both sides are reportedly nearing an agreement that would extend the ceasefire by 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.”