Ethereums deeper problem - Its not just macro risk weighing ETH down

Negative ETH catalysts: ETF outflows, low network activityWhat could trigger ETHs rebound？

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Source: Santiment

However, the whale demand, likely driven by major players like Bitmine, was not enough to taper off the on-chain capital outflows. Notably, ETHs capital outflow has deepened since last October, as tracked by the Realized Cap.

In fact, in 2026, the altcoin has seen $15B in capital outflows as Realized Cap dropped from $310B to $295B.

It meant that the aggregate demand for ETH was still negative. This further reinforced Nansens Sondergaard outlook.

Source: GlassnodeWill the ETH price retest $1.8K？

If the weak demand and outflows extend, then ETHs price may fall to $1.8K. Interestingly, the MVRV Pricing Bands also implied such a projection.

After early 2026 price rejection at Realized Price (1.0 RP, green) at $2.3K, ETH could likely retest the next support band at $1.8K (blue). In fact, during the 2022 crypto winter, ETH only marked a true bottom after decisively climbing above the lower bands of the metric.

Source: Glassnode

Overall, the ETH price could slip lower to $1.8K in the medium term if the weak institutional demand and muted network activity continue in June.