La Liga club Osasuna reportedly used Kalshi to hedge relegation risk

Spanish football club Osasuna attempted to hedge the impact of its relegation from the countrys top football league by buying a €1.2 million ($1.4 million) insurance policy involving a bet on the prediction market Kalshi.

The club revealed today that it purchased “insurance” from broker Howden, which wouldve guaranteed it €6 million ($6.9 million) in the event of relegation from La Liga and helped cover any subsequent financial losses.

It said, “Documents issued by Howden and LaLiga… confirm that such policies are routinely used by clubs and sports organizations to protect against financial contingencies related to their activity.”

This comes four days after Semafor reported that an unnamed Spanish football club placed a multi-million-dollar bet using Kalshi to hedge financial losses from relegation.

Osasuna lost its final game against Getafe 0-1. However, the goal difference was just enough to save the club from relegation. As a result, it lost the Kalshi bet but maintained its top-flight status.

Osasuna was placed 17th in the table, narrowly avoiding relegation.

Semafor also reported that trading firm Susquehanna was on the other side of the Osasuna relegation trade, and that risk analysis firm Game Point Capital orchestrated the trade. Susquehanna reportedly made over $1 million.

The club doesn‘t mention either firm in its statement and only references Howden, which also doesn’t mention Kalshi or any other trading firms in its published certificate.

Osasuna added that, “The purchase of this policy was also reported to the chairman of the club‘s Control Commission and will be included in a report that the commission plans to issue in the coming days about this and other current matters. The club’s auditors were also informed.”

Spain temporarily bans prediction markets

To make matters more interesting, three days after Osasunas game, the Spanish government temporarily banned prediction markets like Kalshi and rival Polymarket in the country for three to four months.

Spains Consumer Rights Ministry reportedly claimed that the pair failed to secure a ‌gambling licence and have been operating in the country without authorisation.

This distinction as to whether or not the pair constitute gambling has been a hotly debated topic among regulators.

Brazil banned Kalshi and Polymarket in April for breaching betting regulations, South Korean police are investigating Polymarket users for alleged illegal gambling, and legal cases across the US continue to argue over its regulatory status.

The revolving door for lawyers between Kalshi and DOJ

Some more controversial prediction market hedges involved three US congressional candidates who were fined by Kalshi and suspended for five years after they bet on their own elections.

Earlier this month, Polymarket ended its paid partnership with Congressman George Santos after he bet, using Kalshi, on whether or not he would attend President Donald Trumps State of the Union speech.

Kalshi referred Santos to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has since started an investigation into whether his actions constitute insider trading.

An editor for popular YouTuber Mr Beast was also fined by Kalshi for insider trading.