Stellar retraces 37% after DTCC rally – Can XLM defend $0.183？

In the final week of May, the Stellar [$XLM] native token rallied 102% from $0.147 to $0.297.

Since then, the token prices have declined by 37.8% to below $0.20. Over the past 24 hours, $XLM has shed 6.38%, and its open interest has decreased by 9.2%.

The combined drop in OI and price, as well as a spike in daily trading volume, pointed to increased selling pressure and panicked market conditions.

The initial rally was spurred by news that the chain was selected by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) for its tokenisation plans.

Source: CryptoQuant

It appears that subsequent demand has been slim, leading to a deep retracement. The spot taker CVD measures aggressive buying and selling over 3 months, and it shifted from a buyer-dominant phase to more neutral conditions.

With Bitcoin [BTC] threatening to fall below the $60k level once again, it is unclear what the next trend of $XLM would be.

Examining the two bullish arguments for $XLM

Source: $XLM/$USDT on TradingView

From February, $XLM has traded within a range bounded by $0.143 and $0.183. The breakout in late May broke the bearish structure as well as the range. At the time of writing, the former ranges high was being retested as support.

The bullish swing moves 78.6% retracement level at $0.173 was also a viable support level for $XLM.

The CMF was in neutral territory, showing that capital flow was neither buyer nor seller dominated. However, the A/D indicator has fallen to new lows recently, and the RSI was descending below neutral 50 at press time.

Together, the indicators showed sellers have the upper hand.

Traders call to action- Buyers remain cautious

Source: $XLM/$USDT on TradingView

The $0.183 range high has already yielded a positive reaction on Friday, the 5th of June. This price bounce could not advance above $0.218 before falling once more.

This situation was still advantageous to bears in the short-term. $XLMs structure-breaking rally, driven by the DTCC announcement, might not have finished retracing.

Final Summary

• Stellars utility token doubled in price within a few days after the DTCC announced that it had chosen the blockchain for its tokenisation plans.
• The bullish range breakout and structural break has seen a swift retracement and the selling was not yet complete.