As bitcoin, altcoin prices gain, derivatives signal skepticism over a sustained rally

Bitcoin $BTC$64,156.16 has risen 1.4% since midnight UTC, catching a tailwind as hopes for an Iran-U.S. deal sent oil prices lower. The move provided a lift to major altcoins, with ether ($ETH) adding 2.4% and solana ($SOL) and BNB advancing about 1.5%. $XRP lagged with a 0.7% gain.

Despite the green shoots among the majors, the broader market has yet to follow suit. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) remains slightly lower over 24 hours. Still, smaller outliers like DEXE and BEAT jumped of 8% and 5%.

Monday's bounce, however, is being met with heavy skepticism from some analysts, particularly when comparing bitcoin's price with its simple moving average (SMA).

“$BTC has clawed back to $64K but nothing behind it. The 200-week SMA near $62.2K held the weekend dips, and that line with the $60K shelf is what separates a base from a deeper leg, while $66K to $68K caps the upside,” analysts at Marx said in an email.

“We buy near the 200 week and sell into resistance, we do not chase the middle,” they added.

This cautious stance is echoed by other chart analysts, who warn that bitcoins daily chart is currently carving out an “ominous bear flag.” If that pattern breaks to the downside, one analyst warned the next stop could be $54,000.

Derivatives positioning

• Bitcoin's 24-hour volume jumped 30% to $129.9 billion. Open interest (OI) held steady around $108 billion. Liquidations rose 41% to $212 million, with longs accounting for $118.4 million of the amount.
• $BTC futures positioning has lightened notably since open interest peaked at 801K $BTC on June 4. It now stands at 722K $BTC, down slightly from Sunday. Ether OI shows the same pattern.

  $XRP is the outlier. OI in the fourth-largest non-stablecoin token by market cap jumped to 2.35 billion tokens, the most since the October crash. Funding rates are marginally positive at around 4%, a combination that points to growing demand for upside exposure. On the down side, 24-hour CVD is negative, which weakens the bull case. It suggests sellers are hitting the bid with market orders and driving price action, rather than buyers passively accumulating. On the chart, $XRP looks weak after a recent bear flag breakdown.

• $SOL's OI hit a record high of 72.11 million tokens, raising the odds of a volatile move in either direction. Funding rates and OI-adjusted CVD are sending mixed signals, similar to $XRP.

  Among the top 25 coins, only $BTC, TRX and $ETH show positive CVD. Nearly everything else has negative value, a sign that shorts are leading price action marketwide.

• $BTC and $ETH 30-day implied volatility indexes remain in recent ranges, signaling calm markets with no rush into options for protection or speculation.
• In options flow, a trader bought a bull call spread on HYPE, betting on a rally above $100 and as high as $150 by year-end. The trade crossed on the decentralized derivatives platform Derive.
• On Deribit, $BTC and $ETH puts continue trading at a premium to calls, a sign of continued stronger demand for downside protection.