Anthropic futures shrug off Coinbase debut and hit fresh lows

Anthropic pre-IPO futures have fallen as much as 9% since their Coinbase debut, with contracts on both Coinbase and Binance sliding to new lows despite fresh attention from traders.

Summary

• Anthropic pre-IPO futures fell up to 9% after their Coinbase debut, with contracts on Coinbase and Binance hitting fresh lows.
• Traders appear cautious after SpaceX pre-IPO contracts traded above the eventual IPO price, exposing some investors to losses.
• Coinbase has warned that Anthropics final IPO price could differ by as much as 25% from current perpetual futures levels.

As reported by crypto.news, Coinbase added Anthropic and OpenAI pre-IPO perpetual futures contracts to its growing lineup of private-market trading products on June 22. Rather than benefiting from the exchanges listing effect that has historically boosted some newly listed assets, Anthropic futures moved sharply lower within a day of launch.

Per data from TradingView, the ANTHROPIC/USDC contract on Coinbase opened around $1,728 and was trading near $1,648 at the time of writing, representing a decline of roughly 7%. During the same period, the contract swung between a June 22 high of $1,769 and a June 23 low of $1,560, highlighting elevated volatility immediately after launch.

Similar price action emerged on competing venues. Binances ANTHROPIC/USDT perpetual contract dropped about 5% between June 22 and June 23 to roughly $1,630. As per data from TradingView, the Binance contract had traded near $1,700 before Coinbase introduced its Anthropic futures product, implying a decline of approximately 9% since the listing took place. The contract also touched an all-time low of $1,545 on June 23.

Source: TradingView

The weakness comes despite Anthropic announcing a partnership with Micron Technology, a company valued at roughly $1.37 trillion, suggesting that traders have remained focused on pricing risks surrounding the eventual IPO rather than recent business developments.

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SpaceX experience weighs on pre-IPO sentiment

Recent trading activity has drawn comparisons with the path taken by SpaceX-related contracts before the aerospace companys public debut.

According to crypto.news, some investors appear to be reassessing the risks attached to pre-IPO perpetual products after SpaceX contracts traded well above the eventual IPO price. SpaceX pre-IPO perpetuals changed hands around $155 before the companys Nasdaq debut, about 15% higher than its $135 IPO price, leaving some traders exposed to losses once public trading began.

Subsequent developments in the stock market have added to those concerns. As previously reported by crypto.news, SpaceX shares fell more than 10% after analysts at KeyBanc initiated coverage with a “Sector Weight” rating while declining to issue a price target. The brokerage said SpaceX remained well positioned within the launch industry but argued that much of the companys future growth may already be reflected in its valuation.

Following that decline, Cathie Woods Ark Invest purchased nearly $32.5 million worth of SpaceX shares across four exchange-traded funds after the stock retreated more than 16% from recent highs.

IPO pricing uncertainty remains unresolved

Another factor keeping traders cautious is the lack of information surrounding Anthropics eventual IPO terms.

Notably, Anthropic has not yet disclosed the number of shares it plans to sell through its IPO filing, making it difficult for exchanges to anchor perpetual futures pricing to a future public-market valuation. As a result, the eventual IPO price could settle either above or below current futures levels once additional details become available.

Coinbase has already highlighted this risk to market participants. The exchange warned that the final IPO price could end up 25% higher or 25% lower than where the perpetual contracts trade before listing.

Elsewhere in the private-market sector, interest in pre-IPO opportunities continues to grow. Last week, crypto.news reported that Kalshi had surpassed a $2 billion annualized revenue run rate and had begun early discussions with investment banks about a potential public offering, weeks after raising $1 billion in funding at a $22 billion valuation.