Analyst warns BTC could drop further after worst June since 2022

Bitcoin could face further downside pressure after ending June below its 200-week moving average but above its realized price, a combination that crypto analyst PlanB says suggests the market has yet to reach a bear market bottom.

Bitcoin fell 20.5% in June to close the month at $58,526 — its worst monthly performance since June 2022 — below its 200-week moving average of $62,000 but above its realized price of $52,000.

“ALL previous bear market bottoms were below realized price,” said PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow pricing model, on Wednesday, adding in a separate post that Bitcoin could drop to $52,000.

The price move would mean Bitcoin falling about 60% from its all-time high of $126,000 in October. The dip could be even deeper, as previous bear markets have seen Bitcoin fall even further, such as 83% in 2018 and 76% in 2022.

BTC is undervalued but can still go lower

“Right now, price is much lower than value and indeed might go lower from here (below realized),” PlanB said. “So, Bitcoin is undervalued but can still go lower.”

BTC is trading between the 200-week moving average and the realized price. Source: PlanB

Bitcoins realized price is the aggregate cost basis of all coins in circulation, calculated by valuing each unspent transaction output (UTXO) at the price when it last moved on-chain. It represents the average price at which holders acquired their coins, serving as a key onchain metric for support levels during bear markets.

Related: Bitcoin bounces off 21-month low, but leverage data signals caution: Was $57K the bottom？

Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue Research Institute, told Cointelegraph that the June close above realized price but below the 200-week moving average “signals the bear bottom is still ahead per prior cycles.”

“Im eyeing late-2026 capitulation there before the next leg up, though shallower this cycle due to institutions,” he said.

Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, told Cointelegraph that the current consolidation near $60,000 is “approaching a potential bottom zone, with strong historical and technical support likely forming around the $55,000 level if further downside occurs.”

Midterm year market bottom

ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen also speculated there could be a cycle bottom for Bitcoin this year, given it is a US midterm election year. This has previously coincided with bear market bottoms in 2018 and 2022.

“The second half of midterm years usually marks the accumulation zone/market cycle bottom,” he said.

The US midterms are scheduled for Nov. 3, when all House of Representatives seats and about a third of Senate seats are up for election.