'Any signs of life？' Bernstein holds 'ambitious' $150K year-end bitcoin target despite 54% drawdown

Quick Take

• Bernstein says the current bitcoin bear market has cut roughly 54% off the October 2025 top, far milder than the 75-90% drawdowns seen in past cycles.
• Strategy has bought about 175,000 BTC for roughly $14 billion so far in 2026, and Bernstein argues its balance sheet makes forced selling unlikely, leaving MSTR a net buyer even as U.S. miners turn into sellers.

Bitcoin's current bear market has erased about 54% from its October 2025 peak near $125,000, a shallower decline than the 75% to 90% drawdowns that closed out previous cycles, according to a Bernstein.

The foremost

cryptocurrency

retested recent lows around $60,000 before bouncing to roughly $63,000, analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote in a note to clients on Monday. According to The Blocks

bitcoin price

page, (BTC) was trading around $62,600 on July 6.

Bernstein framed the milder correction as a sign that crypto is maturing, while cautioning that it is unclear whether the market is fully clear of the downturn.

The drawdown has run three quarters from the cycle top, short of the 12 to 15 months that historical corrections have typically lasted, the note said.

Flows tell a calmer story than sentiment

Combined inflows from treasury companies and exchange-traded funds reached $10 billion in 2026, down sharply from $60 billion in 2025, according to Bernstein.

Spot bitcoin ETFs have shed $5.5 billion this year against a $74 billion asset base, meaning treasury companies — Strategy chief among them — have driven the net positive flows.

Chhugani's team argued that $5.5 billion of ETF outflows on a $74 billion base, paired with a roughly 50% price correction, made sentiment feel worse than the underlying flow picture.

In a market where liquidity is concentrated in AI equities, a net positive inflow year for bitcoin looked less alarming, the analysts wrote.

Strategy stays a net buyer

Strategy has acquired about 175,000 BTC for roughly $14 billion in 2026, lifting its holdings to 847,363 BTC, per company filings cited by Bernstein.

The firm addressed concerns that Strategy could be forced to sell.

STRC, its primary preferred perpetual offering, trades at $87.87 against a $100 face value, but the company holds enough balance sheet liquidity to cover cash dividends and interest for more than 17 months, according to the note.

Strategy's debt liabilities sit at about 13% of its bitcoin collateral value, with the next principal payment of roughly $1 billion due by the third quarter of 2028, Bernstein said. The $15 billion in preferred principal functions as perpetual long-term capital.

Under its capital policy, Strategy has signaled it could sell up to $1.25 billion in bitcoin to fund dividends and interest, replenish dollar reserves, and support buyback plans, the analysts wrote. Any reduction in reserve coverage below 12 months would require board authorization.

Those mechanics make a major forced supply from Strategy unlikely, leaving it a net buyer in the market, according to Bernstein.

Miners exit as the AI pivot accelerates

Strategy's accumulation has offset selling from leading U.S. bitcoin miners, which are redirecting toward AI data centers, the note said.

Bernstein expects the largest U.S.-listed miners to abandon bitcoin mining entirely, with their hash rate share absorbed by international operators across Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and Latin America.

Overall network hash rate has fallen about 11% year-to-date on average, the analysts wrote. U.S. miners' share of total network hashrate has slipped more than 40 basis points over the past two quarters, while emerging-market miners have picked up roughly 100 basis points.

Regulation and tokenization keep advancing

Bernstein pointed to continued regulatory momentum, with GENIUS Act rulemaking on stablecoins ongoing and crypto perpetual futures now rolling out in the U.S. through Kalshi and Coinbase. The firm put the odds of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 at roughly even, citing Polymarket.

Tokenized real-world assets have climbed to about $52 billion, a fresh high, according to the note.

Bernstein also called its $150,000 year-end target for bitcoin “ambitious,” given the correction, while maintaining that the cycle will eventually turn. The firm said it continues to watch bitcoin flows for “any signs of life.”