Ethereum climbs toward $1800 – THESE 2 metrics flash caution

Ethereum recovery is entering its first meaningful test as buyers face a concentration of both technical resistance and on-chain supply.

The altcoin rebounded from $1500 and is moving back towards the highlighted supply zone, where sellers who were earlier defending higher prices are still holding ground.

Source: $ETH/USD on TradingView

Sellers hesitate not just because of technical resistance.

According to CryptoQuant data, reserves at Binance have climbed to 3.893 million $ETH.

More to that, OKX continues receiving fresh inflows, so there is more $ETH immediately available for sale.

Moreover, Bitfinex reserves have fallen from 2.7 million to 2.2 million $ETH. This shows that accumulation exists while remaining concentrated. The $1800 level overlaps one of Ethereums largest cost basis clusters.

As a result, many holders are near breakeven, and they sell into strength as investors want to exit positions.

Unless fresh demand absorbs this overhead supply and recaptures $2000, recovery risks slowing before profitability returns broadly.

Assessing Ethereums demand base

Ethereums recovery increasingly depends on who is absorbing the growing supply returning to the market. Exchange inflows continue adding sell-side liquidity, yet institutional demand is preventing that pressure from fully dominating price action.

Meanwhile, according to Coinglass data, recent liquidations exceeding $130 million highlight how sensitive market positioning remains as buyers and sellers continue competing around key resistance levels.

Spot $ETH ETFs have attracted just under $11 billion in net new capital.

Additionally, whales and corporations are buying in larger numbers. However, staking now locks up over 30% of all $ETH currently in existence. This thereby eases the initial supply shock associated with distributing some of this newly unlocked $ETH.

Source: Farside

Nevertheless, the fact that both Coinbase Premium and Spot CVD remain muted suggests a lack of broad-based spot engagement.

Investor sentiment toward exiting has also been reinforced by recent SOPR readings, which have indicated that investors generally still exit at or slightly above break-even.

Therefore, for Ethereum to absorb additional overhead supply and support further gains, stronger, more coordinated investor demand must materialize.

Final Summary

• Ethereum [$ETH] must overcome heavy overhead supply to confirm a sustained recovery above key resistance.
• Ethereum needs stronger spot demand to absorb exchange supply and support a breakout above $2,000.