is another leg down incoming?

Bitcoins recent bounce has taken price directly into a dense resistance zone that includes the 200 MA, a daily horizontal resistance at $103,000, and the golden ratio (0.618 Fibonacci). Historically, such confluence levels are difficult to break without strong conviction and volume, both of which are currently absent.|

Volume analysis shows that the rally into this resistance zone has occurred on declining buy-side interest, raising red flags for a bullish continuation. Without a sudden spike in volume, this setup resembles a textbook bearish retest, a common pattern in downtrending markets, where price revisits former support turned resistance before continuing lower.

Market structure has now clearly shifted into a bearish state. The recent correction not only broke prior swing lows but also confirmed a new lower high with this failed push. This means that unless the $103,000 level is reclaimed and held with strength, the trend remains tilted to the downside.

What to expect in the coming price action

If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $103,000 resistance cluster with strong volume in the near term, another leg down becomes increasingly likely. Traders should watch for signs of a confirmed lower high forming, which could signal a move toward deeper support levels.