Fidelity’s latest Bitcoin chart pattern signals a 2026 “off-year” that could drag prices down to this brutal support level

That setup overlaps with a late-cycle framework laid out in CryptoSlates cycle-clock analysis, which tracked a 2025 peak window by applying prior halving-to-top timing (about 526 days after the 2016 halving and about 546 days after the 2020 halving).

In that mapping, Bitcoins Oct. 6 print near $126,200 arrived inside the projected window.

It was followed by stalled follow-through and broad-range trade, with key support near $108,000.

More recent tape has tested whether the post-peak phase is turning into a deeper reset.

A liquidity and positioning read noted Bitcoins Nov. 4 dip to about $99,075 and described the move as a structural reset amid tighter liquidity and weaker willingness to maintain leveraged longs.

The same report cited CheckOnChain estimates of roughly $34 billion in monthly sell-side pressure as older coins returned to exchanges into softer demand.

It also highlighted a cost-basis concentration, with about 63% of invested capital above $95,000, a level traders monitor for holder behavior and feedback loops from forced selling.

Signs of a post-peak reset, and how deep it could go

Timmer‘s $65,000–$75,000 band also falls inside the drawdown math presented in CryptoSlate’s bear-band model.

The framework notes that prior bear markets have lasted 12 to 18 months, with peak-to-trough declines of around 57% in 2018 and 76% in 2014.

It then argues that ETFs and deeper derivatives could change the path while leaving room for meaningful downside.

Using a 35%–55% drawdown band from $126,272 yields a trough zone around $82,000–$57,000, a bracket that contains Timmers support zone and ties it to a transparent range rather than a single point target.

The same math implies a low window that could land in late 2026 into early 2027 if the reset follows historical duration bands.

The largest point of contention is whether the four-year template remains a workable baseline or whether market structure has diluted it.

In comments on the cycles fading influence, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argued that ETFs, broader institutional access, and regulatory progress have reduced the boom-bust mechanics that once defined the cycle.

He expects ETF-driven adoption to play out over a longer horizon, a view that clashes with the idea of 2026 as a designated “off-year.”

Why 2026‘s macro backdrop could turn ETF flows into Bitcoin’s dominant price driver

Even if cycle timing weakens, macro conditions can still shape the path because they influence ETF flow behavior.

A 2026 macro outlook cited Bank of Americas base case for 2.4% US real GDP growth in 2026 and a rates regime easing toward the mid-3% range by end-2026, a backdrop that can keep real yields mildly positive.

The same piece noted that Bitcoin ETFs can swing by more than $1 billion in a day, making ETF flows a primary transmission channel for shifts in yields and the dollar into spot demand.

For 2026, the near-term decision points cluster around where holders‘ and flows’ support meet.

The $95,000 cost-basis shelf frames a first stress test for positioning, while the $76,000 support map sits near the top of Timmers band and inside the broader drawdown bracket.

Timmers analog framing is that if the last phase ended in both price and time, the next phase is a winter that can last about a year, with support centered in the $65,000–$75,000 region.