Gold (XAU/USD) Price Prediction: Will Gold Surge Toward $5,090 and Break Out of the Symmetrical Triangle?

Gold is approaching a key technical milestone near $5,090, attracting attention from traders and investors monitoring potential breakout opportunities amid a sustained rally.

The metal‘s upward momentum follows several weeks of structured gains, with intermittent pullbacks observed in line with typical consolidation behavior. Analysts highlight that gold’s resilience reflects both technical positioning and its role as a haven amid inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty.

Gold Price Analysis: Bullish Momentum Remains

Gold has steadily climbed near the $5,000 psychological resistance on February 6, maintaining the current bullish structure. According to market commentator Father of the Space, who tracks weekly chart patterns and trend structures, some volatility near resistance is normal, and as long as gold stays above $4,870, the bullish structure remains intact.

Golds recent rebound eased selling pressure, signaling a potential short-term bull cycle, with a bullish flag pattern, geopolitical uncertainty, and a weaker U.S. dollar supporting near-term gains. Source: Dora via X

Historically, gold consolidations within rising channels or triangles have lasted from several days to multiple weeks before continuation moves, with breakouts often requiring confirmation via volume increases. Current gold spot prices at approximately $4,964/oz reflect this measured upward trend, supported by neutral RSI levels and rising trading volumes.

Technical Signals: Symmetrical Triangle and Rising Channels

Golds short-term price behavior shows a transition from rapid gains into a controlled corrective phase. The metal is trading inside a symmetrical triangle while also respecting a higher-timeframe ascending channel. These patterns suggest rotational price behavior rather than a simple one-way move.

Gold trades within a symmetrical triangle, testing resistance, with a confirmed breakout signaling a potential long trade. Source: MIRZA_TRADS on TradingView

Crypto trader and commodities risk manager Crypto Melih noted, “I adjusted my stop to $4,870, and if gold closes above $5,090, Ill trail the position higher toward the potential new all-time high. Rejection at that level would signal a pause in bullish momentum.”

CryptoMelih set his gold ($XAU) stop at $4,870, aiming higher if it closes above $5,090. After a $5,091 peak, gold pulled back and stabilized near $4,964, supporting the year-to-date 73% rally. Source: Crypto Melih via X

Historical precedent indicates that symmetrical triangle breakouts often need one or more attempts to hold above resistance before a sustained rally occurs, with volume spikes providing confirmation. This experience-based perspective strengthens confidence in interpreting the current setup.

Macro Context: Gold as a Hedge Amid Inflation and Geopolitical Tensions

Golds performance remains closely linked to macroeconomic conditions. Uncertainty regarding U.S. Federal Reserve rate adjustments, mixed signals from FOMC commentary, and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar have all contributed to short-term volatility.

Gold is correcting within a rising channel, with key discount ($4,700–$4,698) and premium ($5,342–$5,344) zones guiding rotational, confirmation-based trades amid macro-driven volatility. Source: Wendy_Grace on TradingView

Gold continues to serve as a hedge against inflation and a haven amid global economic uncertainty, with its price trajectory closely influenced by monetary policy and the strength of the U.S. dollar.

This context supports strategies that focus on structured entries rather than chasing momentum. Golds current price range suggests attractive re-entry points near $4,870, while temporary resistance zones near $5,090–$5,100 may trigger short-term retracements.

Bitcoin Miner and NASDAQ Energy Flows Impact Gold ETFs

The iShares COMEX Gold Trust ($IAU Ticker) continues to display bearish technical structure on the daily timeframe, with momentum indicators and moving averages aligned to the downside. RSI and MACD remain in sell territory, while price trades below key short- and medium-term averages, reinforcing a continuation bias rather than a confirmed reversal. On the TradingView chart, gold-linked ETFs are showing similar weakness as risk sentiment shifts toward equities and NASDAQ energy names, reducing near-term demand for defensive assets.

$IAU was trading at around $93.24, up 2.99% in the last 24 hours. Source: TradingView

That said, select oscillators are approaching oversold levels, leaving room for a short-lived bounce if support holds. Broader cross-market flows, including positioning by Bitcoin miner equities and capital rotation between crypto-linked assets and bullion proxies, remain an important correlation to watch. Until price reclaims key resistance zones on rising volume, the technical outlook favors range-bound to corrective price action rather than sustained upside.

Looking Ahead: Breakout Potential and Key Scenarios

Technical indicators suggest gold is testing the upper trendline of a symmetrical triangle. If the metal sustains a breakout above $5,090 with confirming volume, long positions could target higher levels, potentially toward new all-time highs.

Traders should monitor two key scenarios:

• Bullish continuation: Sustained breakout above $5,090 with supportive volume confirms the upward trend.
• Invalidation: Failure to hold above $4,870 or a strong rejection at resistance could indicate temporary consolidation rather than reversal.

Golds rotational behavior within the triangle and rising channel underlines the importance of confirmation signals for informed trading decisions.