Will Bitcoin prices continue to fall to the $15,000 mark?

According to Cointelegraph, there are currently 4 signs that the bears are winning and the

Bitcoin price

will drop to $ 15,000.

According to Cointelegraph writer Yasuhu Gola, since the beginning of 2023, the Bitcoin price has grown by about 60%. Worth mentioning, this price increase process is closely related to the movements of the global financial market.

After failing to break through the $30,000 mark, the Bitcoin price dropped to the $25,000 region. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) plans to stop raising interest rates after a series of bank failures. Again, Bitcoin price is affected by the world economic situation.

According to Cointelegraph, if the Fed's plan is implemented, it is likely that the price of Bitcoin will continue to fall deeply. Here are four early warnings to this statement.

1, USD continues to strengthen

The DXY or US Dollar Index is statistical data that compares the strength of the USD against a group of leading currencies.

Ending the session on May 14, the DXY index gained 1.4% to reach 102.7. In particular, this is the largest growth (in weekly sessions) of DXY since September 2022.

In addition to the large growth, the weekly DXY chart also formed a “double bottom” pattern. According to Cointelegraph, this pattern marks a bullish reversal. It is expected that the DXY index can rise to 105.85 in the next few months.

The rising DXY shows that the USD is regaining strength.

Statistics from the beginning of 2023, the DXY index has always fluctuated with the Bitcoin price. In the event that the Fed stops raising interest rates, an increase in DXY will cause the price of Bitcoin to drop.

“The Fed's ability to halt rate hikes has been overstated by market traders as a 'virtual certainty'. However, there is at least an 84% chance that this will happen,” said Bloomberg analyst John Authers.

2, Gold price near key reversal point

A series of banks collapsed, and many investors looked to gold and Bitcoin as safe investments to help protect assets.

If Bitcoin grows to $30,000, then gold will also increase by nearly 15% to approach the all-time high at $2,076 (according to statistics from Tradingview). However, the price movement shows that the gold price is showing signs of reversing at this important resistance area.

Gold shows signs of falling after the third time approaching the area above 2,000 USD.

Previously, in August 2020, the price of gold reached above $2,000 for the first time and immediately fell 19% to $1,673. Similarly, in March 2022, gold once again failed to break through $2,000 and turned down more than 20%.

According to Cointelegraph, the gold price now has a third chance to break the $2,000 mark. Even so, a bearish scenario is increasingly evident. Cointelegraph predicts gold will fall towards the 50-weekly EMA support at $1,805, while negatively impacting Bitcoin price.

3, The amount of cash in the market decreases

M2 is an index that measures the amount of cash (including USD) in banks and the foreign exchange market. When the total money supply is large, the more money pouring into the financial market will help investment assets such as cryptocurrencies, gold, and stocks increase in price.

Specifically, during the period of the Covid-19 pandemic, when the Fed loosened monetary policy, the M2 index increased by more than 40%. M2 hit a record high of $21.84 trillion in January 2022.

The amount of cash in banks and foreign exchange markets is also declining.

Since then, M2 started to decline. Currently, M2 is maintained at $20.81 trillion, down 4% from the peak. Historically, 4 times the M2 index fell more than 2%, all signaled bad developments for the economy, including 3 recessions and 1 sell-off.

In other words, a falling M2 could herald a new low in the price of Bitcoin, which is moving in tandem with the US stock index. Statistics show that the correlation coefficient (weekly frame) between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq100 index is reaching 0.92.

4, Bitcoin is forming a bearish pattern

According to Cointelegraph, on the weekly chart, Bitcoin is about to end a “bullish wedge” pattern. The price drop will start after this pattern is broken.

For traders, this is a pattern that heralds a significant drop in price. Before that, Bitcoin's fluctuation range often gradually decreased and suddenly plummeted to a lower price zone.

A broken “rising wedge” pattern will lead to a sharp decline in prices.

It is expected that Bitcoin will head toward the $20,000 region and as low as $15,000. The bottom price depends on the breakout of the “rising wedge” pattern. For long-term investors, they can wait to buy Bitcoin when the price drops 45% from the current.