Developer Report by Electric Capital

Source: Enrique, Electric Capital

Editor: WikiBit

Eletric Capital has released a report on developer data based on inspecting 140M+ crypto commits. As of June 1, 2023, the number of monthly developers reached 21.3K. Overall, the number of crypto developers has been increasing since June 2020. However, starting from June 2022 (one year ago), there has been a downward trend in the number of developers.

By comparing the time between the first and last commits of active developers each month, categorizing them in the crypto field:

Newcomers: Developers who have worked in the crypto industry for less than 1 year.

Emerging Devs: Developers who have been involved in crypto work for 1-2 years.

Established Devs: Developers who have been working in the crypto industry for more than 2 years.

Emerging Devs are growing and Established Devs are steady. In contrast, the decline in monthly active developers in the last year came from Newcomers

From June '22 to June '23:

-48% Newcomers (-7.73K devs)

+44% Emerging Devs (+1.65K devs)

+2% Established Devs (+0.15K devs)

Reasons for the Decrease in Newcomers

First, fewer new devs are trying crypto.

By observing the new devs by month, 2.9K new devs tried crypto in May '23:

-20% from Feb '23 (3 months ago)

-42% from Nov '22 (6 months ago)

-50% from May '22 (12 months ago)

+45% from Nov 21 (market ATH)

Second, new devs who joined in 2023 have not stayed long.

By plotting the monthly retention rate of developers starting from January 2021, we can observe the number of months it takes for the majority of new developers to leave (retention rate < 20%):

• 2021: 6 - 10 months

• 2022: 3 - 6 months

• 2023 (so far): 3 - 4 months

Actually, the retention rate in 2023 is not abnormal. By analyzing the retention rate of cohorts starting from 2015, we observe that developers who join during bear markets tend to leave faster. The higher attrition rate of new developers in 2023 compared to 2022 or 2021 is typical during bear markets.

Market cycles also explain dominance between Newcomers, Emerging, & Established crypto devs.

Newcomers dominate around market peaks:

• 6 months after Jan 2018 market peak (June 2018): 70% dominance

• 7 months after Nov 2021 market ATH (June 2022): 60% dominance

Devs who work in crypto over one year (Emerging & Established devs) dominate once we are firmly in a bear market:

• 24 months after Jan 2018 market peak (Jan 2020): 60% dominance

• 18 months after Nov 2021 ATH (June 2023): 60% dominance

To determine the significance of left developers to the industry, considering developers who have not made any code commits for two consecutive months as having left the industry, we find that the number of developers who stopped contributing after March 2023 accounts for less than 20% of the historical commits.

Characteristics of Developers who Contribute Continuously

First, devs who contributed recently in April and May '23 historically contribute the majority of code commits (80%+).

Second, devs who contributed Apr & May push code on more days

Separating devs who recently left from those who stayed & graph # of days they actively push code

Median days devs actively pushed code:

• Devs who continue to work: 13 active wks

• Devs who left: 2 active wks

Third, developers who contributed Apr & May have been in crypto for longer.

Separating devs who recently left from those who stayed and then graph their tenure in crypto.

Median days developers stayed in crypto:

• Devs who continue to work: 19 wks

• Devs who left: 8 wks

Growth of Developers in Blockchain Ecosystems

Summary

• -22% monthly active devs YoY

• Devs who left were Newcomers in crypto <12 mo. & only responsible for <20% of commits

• In contrast, devs in crypto 12+ months continue to build. They contribute 80%+ of commits

• Osmosis, Sui, Aptos, TON, Optimism, Aztec grew YoY

Original Article Link: https://twitter.com/eherrerosj/status/1677052287628488704